چكيده به لاتين
Abstract
At the present time the effects of climate change and global warming are widely known. Iran like other countries have been confronted with this conflict, and due to locating in an arid and semi-arid region And faced with the problem of water shortage, the effects of climate change and global warming intensify the consequences of fresh-water scarcity which could lead to degradation of water quality level. In this research the study area is Gol-Gol basin in Ilam. Gol-Gol river is the main source of Ilam dam reservoir. Thus variations of the river water quality has a great impact on water quality of the reservoir. In this research, the outputs of AOGCMs models were used in order to predict temperature and precipitation based on climate change's effects.The utilized model in this study is HadCM3 which is applied under two scenarios (A2 and B2) and in period (2051-2074). SDSM statistical model was employed to downscale. The results showed increase 2degree in temperature and increase 6-10% in precipitation in 2 scenarios. SWAT model and SWAT-CUP software were used to simulate runoff and river nutrient, and for calibrate model, subsequently. According to the calibration results SWAT capability were approved. In the following, by introducing downscaled results of AOGCM models to the SWAT, runoff and nutrient(org N, NO3) changes of the basin were simulated in future. Decrease in river discharge and flow were observed in 2 models and for quality parameters the increase 5-17% orgN and decrease 26-43% NO3 in density is predicted.
