چكيده به لاتين
Abstract:
Land use change is the result of interactions between different driving forces and processes at different scales. Most of models have been proposed for the land use change simulation only considers the suitability of lands and spatial competition between different land uses at micro-scales. But agricultural land use projection involves assessment of macro-level socio-economic variables and driving forces. This paper suggests a dynamic modelling approach that integrates demand-driven changes in agricultural land area at macro-level with spatially explicit distribution processes at regional-scale. This approach is based on combination of two core models with dynamic top-down and bottom-up feedback loops between them, system dynamics (SD) model and land use change simulator (LUCS) model. Without the spatial considerations, the SD model is used to project the agricultural land demands influenced by economic, demographic, technologic, and regulatory variables and their interactions at country-level. In addition, LUCS model is used to simulate the downscaling of these demands between country regions based on spatial consideration of land suitability, change elasticity, spatial policies and restrictions, and competitive advantage of agriculture. Sensitivity analysis and empirical validation indicated the reliability and capability of the model for addressing the complexity of current agricultural land use changes and for investigating long-term scenarios in the future. Finally, the model is used to explore the future dynamics of Iran agricultural land use during 2015-2040 with eight-year pace. The simulation results for Iran show that the water availability is the most determining factor in the distribution of agricultural lands in a way that a continuing downward trend in agriculture land areas will occur in east and northeast, as well as an upward trend in north and southwest regions of the country. The outcome of this study enhances our capacity to consider approaches from different disciplines in an integrated framework for land use change modeling and provide a decision support tool for land use planning, policy making and managements of agricultural sector.
Keywords: Integrated modelling; Land use change; Agricultural lands; Cropping pattern; Iran
