چكيده به لاتين
Implanting infrastructure plans in each area will cause to enhance economic condition and commercial interactions in that area. Road projects which are considered as infrastructure projects in the country are often requiring heavy budget and long time for implementation. Therefore, delay in these kinds of projects causes irrecoverable harms to the country’s economy. On the other hand, by increasing data, powerful tools to process data and transfer them to the useful knowledge and information are being used. One of these tools is data mining which is like a giant which is extracting useful knowledge and information from data. In this dissertation, by defining problem, determining factors affecting on projects time delays has been considered into consideration using data mining tools and applying its algorithms in order to anticipate time delays and its reasons. In this research, 200 projects have been randomly chosen and their information have been employed in data mining using Tehran Municipality's civil development projects data during 2011 to 2013. The main purpose in this research is to specify the most important criteria affecting on projects time delay and anticipating project probable time duration. Data collection method is field and library method and in field method, interview and tables have been employed. According to the results obtained from classification algorithms, civil projects’ time delay can be determined by 89% accuracy and byemploying feature selection algorithms, 7 factors out of
all of factors existed in civil projects time delay as the most important factors were detected. Also, rules led to time delay more than 1 year also were specified. On the other hand, owing to this issue that choosing classification algorithm is multi-criteria problem, TOPSIS model has been used to select the best classification algorithm in which the best one is META algorithm. Also, in evaluating rules extracted from database, 2 criteria of support and confidence have been employed and by applying Data Envelopment Analysis Technique, plus achieving efficiency of each rule, their rankings have also been obtained. Results obtained from this study can be used in regard with prognosticating projects’ time delay.
