چكيده به لاتين
One of the Major problems related to the water quality in various basins throughout our country is the salinity of water resources. Helleh River Basin is located in South of Iran and like most parts in South of Iran has a droughty and semi droughty climate. The main difficulty with this basin is its high salinity. Because of the particular climate in that region, the conditions for having a primary salinity is provided. With this preview in mind, in this research an analytical tool for modeling of water resources salinity in the river basin has been developed. In order to create a quantity model simulation module SWAT model was used; a model which its primary edition can’t model the salinity of water resources. Also quality module was created based on the salt equity in the MATLAB programming software. The SUFI 2 method was used to ensure simultaneous calibration, validation and analytical uncertainty of the quantity- quality method. The calibration of quantity-quality model was performed for 6 years (1995-2000) and its results were reported in Shekastian Station based on p-factor and d-factor criterions and R2 and NS objective functions. The results reported for discharge are 0.86, 1.3, 0.76 and 0.73 and for Total Dissolved Solid (TDS) concentration are 0.89, 1.9, 0.63 and 0.56. The validation of quantity-quality model was performed for 3 years (2001-2003). The conditions and the place of data gathering were the same as calibration section. The results reported for discharge are 0.86, 0.73, 0.81 and 0.76 and for Total Dissolved Solid (TDS) concentration are 0.7, 1.4, 0.81 and 0.65. Finally with the use of calibrated model and climate data A2, B1 and A1B scenarios were defined. These scenarios contain precipitation and temperature in near future (2046-2064) and far future (2081-2099) and discharge and TDS in Shekastian Station are predicted in them. In the end monthly average of near and far future were calculated under the mentioned scenarios and were compared with the average of basic period (1961-1999). The results of created model for simulation of discharge and TDS concentration indicate that the maximum discharge and TDS for various scenarios occur one or two month sooner. Also in each scenario the average of discharge and TDS concentration increase.
Key words: Primary Salinity, SWAT, SUFI2, Climate Change
