چكيده به لاتين
Abstract:
Water-Banking can increase the flexibility needed to manage water allocation during drought conditions and also facilitate the transfer of water-rights, but it may produce significant socio-economic impacts on the subjected area that it is crucial to be considered before policy making. Therefore, by using appropriate computer-modeling approaches (such as Agent-Based modeling approach), it is possible to study feedbacks amongst human activities, hydrological changes, social and economic factors. In this regard, by utilizing the BDI behavioral framework, the simulation of the stakeholders' behavior will be more accurate. Behavioral simulation requires the definition of objective and subjective indicators. The objective indicators are entered into the model in the form of statistics and quantitative information. On the other hand, the subjective indicators that depend on the perception of a person, first, it must be converted into quantitative data by various methods such as scoring, ranking and fuzzy-logic. In this study, the idea of the Water-Banking was first studied in terms of concept and structure, and a proposed mechanism for Ground-Water-Banking was prepared. Then, after identifying the stakeholders related to Ground-Water-Banking, their behavior was simulated by the operating model using the BDI behavioral framework (the conceptual behavior of each of the stakeholders was defined according to the beliefs, desires and intentions). Accordingly, it was possible to simulate the presence of them in light of Ground-Water-Bank. The hydrological and environmental information needed for this model was provided by its combination with existing models. Applying the appropriate Price-Discovery models for each transaction related to the proposed Ground-Water-Banking mechanism, the price and volume of equilibrium were obtained when supply and demand were significantly different. In this study, the study area of Isfahan-Borkhar in the Gavkhoni basin was selected as the case-study for assessing the idea of Ground-Water-Banking in the period of ten years (2001-2011). The main purpose of this thesis is to assess the proposed Ground-Water-Bank's mechanism for different water-banking policies. Therefore, six different scenarios were defined based on the proposed Water-Bank prices to the farmers (in three level: low, medium and high prices) and the initial reaction of farmers to participate in the water-banking (in both optimistic and pessimistic conditions). Results indicated under different scenarios, the proposed mechanism of Ground-Water-Banking can play a positive role in improving the status of aquifer, ensuring water security for both domestic and industry demands in dry-year conditions, and increasing net-income of farmers in the region.
Key words: Water-Banking, Behavioral simulation, Agent-Based Modeling, BDI Behavioral Framwork.
