چكيده به لاتين
Abstract:
Researchers have shown that the inefficiency of project management operation is due to particular complexity factors which have interdependencies and industry specific uncertainties. The complexity of construction systems is due to non-linear and emerging probabilistic behaviors which can occur in the interactions between related tasks. The investigation of complexity in the project has become an essential issue to present advanced methods and concepts for project management. Earned Value Management (EVM) is one of the most known and practical methods for project monitoring in terms of time, cost, and domain, which has received a lot of attention in recent years. However, EVM presents the project performance in the given period and statically looks at the project and does not reflect changes and deviations over time. Therefore, these changes analyses as well as cause and effect analysis in this method are not simply possible. The weakness of traditional performance measurement methods requires presenting new and quantitative methods.
Additionally, the complexity in projects has caused valid questions to be posed: How is the project complexity measured in the EVM system? What is the index of dynamicity measurement in this system? Based on these questions, this thesis aims at filling this research gap which has been filled by none of the quantitative measurements of complexity in the EVM system in research works. Therefore,in this research information theory is used for the relationship between complex construction systems and the complexity of entropy measurement.
This is the first study for using Shannon entropy algorithm to quantitatively measure complexity in the earned value method of the project management area from the information theory perspective. By presenting a dynamicity measurement index in the EVM system called "Budget Success Rate" and using in Shannon entropy algorithm, the complexity is calculated in this system.
Results showed that this quantitative measurement of complexity in the EVM system in the project management area not only fill the research gap, but also can set a unit standard to measure complexity of this system in the future research by presenting dynamicity measurement index in this system toward dynamic analysis of cost control of a project.
Keywords:
Earned Value Management, Complexity, Chaos, Shannon Entropy, Cost and Schedule Performance Indices, Dynamical Systems
