چكيده به لاتين
Abstract
As water resources become stressed due to increasing of water demand, understanding the effect of climate change on various components of the water cycle and optimizing the crop pattern is a strategic importance in water resource management.
In this study, we were used a hydrologic model of Seimareh dam basin to study the impact of future climate on the water resources. The hydrologic model was created using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and we assumed land use has not change in 2003-2016. The model calibrated by SWAT-CUP and SUFI-2 Algorithm for period from 2005 to 2011 and validated for 2012 to 2014 using monthly river discharges data and simulated crop yield (wheat, barley, sugarbeet, grap,walnut and apple) compared well with existind data.
Future climate scenarios for periods of 2020-2040 were generated from the HadCM3 for A1B, B1 and A2 scenarios Which were downscaled by LARS-WG model. The hydrologyc model was then applied to these periods to analyze the effect of future climate on precipitation, blue water and green water across the watershed for future scenarios.
We found that,annual rainfall, blue water and greenwater will increase of 49.1%, 72.1% and 41.3% in the A1B scenario, 48.3%, 69.4% and 41.5% in the A2 scenario and 45.2%, 62.3%, 39.5% in the B1 scenario. In general the region will experience increase in peak of runoff considerably and dry period in warm seasons. Also, we were linked Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm and SWAT model. We were analyzed two different problems in seimareh basin for receive to optimal percent of agriculture and garden crops by maximizing the total benefit and available water resources in subbasin scale.In first problem, we were maximized total benefit and were minimized rate of evapotranspiration and sum of soil water and blue water. In second problem, total benefit and blue water use were maximized. total benefit and Results of first problem show that increase of walnut and sugar beet area lead to more total benefit and less available water resource. Also less total benefit and more available water resource caused by increase of apple and barley area. Second problem optimized solution indicate that about 10-12 percent of blue water resource in basin are used for irrigation. We think, This is due to of low agricultural land in basin and small percent of this lands on down stream of seimareh reservoir.
Keywords: Water Footprint, Green Water, Blue Water, Climate Change, Crop Pattern Optimization, SWAT, PSO, LARS-WG.
