چكيده به لاتين
Electricity power consumption is usually known as an important indicator of economic growth in every country. As a result, having accurate information about the residential electricity demand model and its driving factors can help policy makers in reducing electricity consumption and meeting the future demands of this energy. On the other hand, increasing the capacities and creating new units for electricity generation, requires increasing in factors of production which can affect the marginal cost of electricity. This paper, therefore, estimates the marginal price of electricity model along with the residential electricity demand model in Iran. In first model, the marginal real price of residential sector has been estimated as a function of residential electricity consumption, real cost of the composite fuel which is utilized for electricity generation, the amount of investment and the number of labors in electricity industry. For this purpose, an ordinary least squares approach has been used, covering a time period of 1380 to 1395. The results of this estimation show that there is no meaningful relationship between the marginal price of electricity and the residential electricity consumption. In return, an increase in every factors of production, can lead to an increase in the marginal price of electricity. Consequently, for the continuity of electricity companies, the electricity sales price must increase appropriately as much as its marginal price. In second model of this paper, the residential electricity demand has been estimated as a function of real price of electricity, real price of natural gas, consumption of last year, real household’s income, household size, climate (heating and cooling) indexes and energy subsidies. A provincial panel data econometric approach has been utilized, covering a time period of 1380 to 1395. According to the results, the short-run own price, income and cross price elasticities of demand have been estimated small and less than unity which shows that the residential electricity consumption is not sensitive to its own price, household’s income and the price of its substitution fuels in short-run. Furthermore, climate variables cannot have a meaningful effect on residential electricity consumption. In return, consumption of last year is the most important factor in changing electricity consumption. Moreover, the estimation of long-run price and income elasticities indicates that price and income policies are more successful in long-run and price policies can be more effective than income policies.
