22028

22028

طراحي الگوي ارزيابي شدت بحران در صنعت حمل و نقل ريلي با استفاده از روش تحليل سلسله مراتبي

كارشناسي ارشد

مهندسي ايمني در راه آهن

95-96

1399/2/31

دكتر حميدرضا احدي

راه آهن

چكيده امروزه علي رغم پيشرفت¬هاي تكنولوژيكي موجود، مصايب ناشي از سوانح طبيعي(زلزله ، سيل ، طوفان ، صاعقه، بهمن، گردباد، آتش سوزي، آتشفشان و ...) و غيرطبيعي (جنگ، حوادث تروريستي، تصادفات جاده¬اي ، حوادث صنعتي، ناآرامي¬هاي سياسي، مهاجرت آوارگان و ...) يكي از موانع اصلي توسعه پايدار كشورها به شمار مي¬روند و عدم آمادگي و مقابله مناسب با آنها تلفات و خسارات سنگيني را به ملت¬ها و داراييهاي آنها وارد مي¬كند كه بعضاً جبران¬ناپذير است. يكي از صنايع بزرگي كه در معرض وقوع بحران مي¬باشد صنعت حمل¬ونقل ريلي است. دراين ميان شناسايي نقاط بحران¬خيز كشور كمك مي¬كند تا بتوان نقاط پرخطر ناشي از بروز بحران در حمل¬و نقل ريلي را مشخص كرده و براساس تجربيات بحران¬هاي گذشته و پيش¬بيني¬هاي انجام¬شده، الگويي به منظور ارزيابي شدت بحران در صنعت حمل¬ونقل ريلي با روشهاي مختلف طراحي نمود. نداشتن آمادگي و مقابله نكردنِ مناسب با انواع بحران‌، خسارات سنگيني به ملت‌ها و داراييهاي آن‌ها وارد مي‌كند كه بعضاً جبران‌ناپذير است. ازاين‌رو، مديريت بحران‌هاي طبيعي مي‌تواند اين هزينه‌ها را كاهش دهد و جوامع مختلف را در برابر اين بحران‌ها ايمن و مصون كند. راه آﻫﻦ، اﻳﻤﻦﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﺷﻴﻮه ﺣﻤﻞ و ﻧﻘﻞ ﻣﻲ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. اﻣﺎ دﻻﻳﻠﻲ ﭼﻮن ﺧﻄﺎي اﻧﺴﺎﻧﻲ، ﺧﻄﺎي ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي ﻋﻼﺋﻢ و ارﺗﺒﺎﻃﺎت، ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺖ ﻧﺎﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺧﻄﻮط و اﺑﻨﻴﻪ ﻓﻨﻲ و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ وﻗﻮع ﺑﻼﻳﺎي ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ مانند سيل، زلزله و... ، ﮔﺎﻫﻲ اﻳﻦ ﺷﻴﻮه ﺣﻤﻞ و ﻧﻘﻞ را ﺑﺎ ﺧﻄﺮات و ﺣﻮادﺛﻲ ﻣﻮاﺟﻪ ﻣﻲ ﺳﺎزﻧﺪ. وﻗﻮع ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺣﻮادﺛﻲ اﻏﻠﺐ ﺳﻄﻮح ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﻲ از راه آﻫﻦ را ﺑﺎ ﺷﺮاﻳﻂ ﺑﺤﺮاﻧﻲ ﻣﻮاﺟﻪ ﻣﻲﺳﺎزد. در اين پايان¬نامه به¬دنبال طراحي يك الگوي خاص براي ارزيابي شدت بحران در صنعت حمل ¬و نقل ريلي با استفاده از روش تحليل سلسله¬مراتبي هستيم. در¬واقع با داشتن يك الگوي خاص از پيش¬ تعيين¬شده مي¬توان¬ به مقابله با بحران چه در زمان قبل از وقوع بحران و چه در زمان بعد از وقوع بحران به طور مؤثرتري اقدامات لازم را انجام داد. در اين پايان¬نامه براي اولين بار الگوي مشخصي براي سنجش و اندازه¬گيري كمي شدت بحران و شاخصي به منظور اندازه گيري دوري از ايمني در صنعت ريلي ارائه شده است كه بر اساس آن ميتوان وضعيت ايمني و بطور مشخص شدت سوانح ريلي را در دوره هاي زماني مختلف در هر يك از نواحي راه آهن و همچنين در كل نواحي مورد بررسي و سنجش قرار داد.

1399/03/20

Designing a crisis severity assessment model in the railway industry using hierarchical analysis

5/20/2020 12:00:00 AM

Nowadays, in spite of technological advances, the adversities caused by natural disasters (e.g., earthquake, flood, storm, lightning, snowslide, tornado, fire, volcano, etc.) and unnatural disasters (e.g., war, terrorist incidents, road accidents, industrial accidents, political unrests, refugees' immigration, etc.,) are regarded as one of the main barriers to sustainable development of countries, and lack of readiness and proper combat with them will impose heavy losses and damage to nations and their properties which are sometimes irreversible. One of the large industries at the risk of crisis is the rail transport industry. Meanwhile, identifying the crisis-prone points of the country helps us determine the high-risk areas resulting from the crisis incidence in rail transport and design a model to assess the crisis severity in the rail transport industry in different ways based on the past crisis experiences and forecasts. In fact, unexpected events affect human life and hundreds of millions of people have felt their lives trapped within the loop of losses and damage caused by these events, and millions have died and the damage amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars has hampered socioeconomic development of human societies. Iran country is also among the world's most crisis-prone countries and has always been subject to multiple crisis provoking events and incidents which have resulted in huge financial losses and significant losses in life. Past experiences in our country show that dealing with unexpected events and their consequences is a major challenge facing the authorities, and crisis management has always faced serious problems at the time of accidents incidence. In spite of the efforts made in many countries to decrease the risk and adverse effects of crises, the damage and costs of many crises are on the rise. The lack of readiness and proper combat with different types of crises will impose heavy losses and damage to nations and their properties which are sometimes irreversible. Therefore, natural crises management can reduce these costs and keep various societies safe against these crises. Transportation in any country is one of the important and infrastructural parts of national development such that specialists and economists believe that achieving the economic development goals is impossible unless we have a dynamic and advanced transportation system. Rail way is the safest method of transportation, but factors such as human error, error of signs and communication systems, improper quality of lines and technical buildings, as well as the incidence of natural disasters such as flood, earthquake, etc., sometimes face this type of transportation with dangers and accidents. The incidence of such events often faces different levels of rail way with critical conditions. Finally, this thesis seeks to design a particular model to assess the severity of the crisis in the rail transport industry using analytical hierarchy process. In fact, having a particular predefined model, one can deal with crisis whether before or after the crisis incidence by taking the required actions.