چكيده به لاتين
Insufficient attention to the issues and principles of risk management can create negative results in the activity cycle of various industries, organizations, or projects. This weakens performance in terms of quality, scheduling, budgeting, or specific safety issues. Risk assessment as a special and important part of the risk management process is done by various tools and methods, each of which is selected and used according to the specific type and conditions of each project. The existence of specific limitations of each method and tool has led to the use of hybrid and integrated approaches that eliminate these shortcomings and limitations as much as possible. In this research, with a new and innovative approach, a hybrid method has been presented, to eliminate the shortcomings and limitations that still remain in the risk management discussion. Lack of attention to the relationships of risk factors in a project and their effects on each other, time-consuming and costly existing methods, principled and logical presentation of relationships and also determining the priorities for addressing risk factors after examining these factors from several aspects of the project, are the shortcomings and limitations that have been considered in this research. In this regard, first by drawing the hierarchical structure of risk factors by FTA method in a project, its risk factors are determined and by entering these factors in the matrix of pairwise comparisons of DEMATEL method, the amount of dependency and the effects of these factors on each other are determined. In the following, the output information of these two tools leads to drawing a Bayesian network of risk factors that determine the probabilities of occurrence of each of the existing risks by considering their effects on each other. These probabilities of occurrence of risk factors are considered as one of the three variables of the classical FMEA method and with the opinions of experts, two variables of severity and detection of risk in the FMEA table, a unique risk priority number is determined for each risk factor. The risk priority number assigned to each of these factors reflects the importance of these factors in important aspects of the project. In other words, in this study, an attempt has been made to make modifications to the classical FMEA method by considering the dependency and effects of risk factors. Finally, the explained approach was implemented in a residential complex construction project. The study conducted on the project showed that the most important risk that the project is affected by, is the impact of international sanctions on the project activities.
