چكيده به لاتين
investigate the severity of injuries is one of the most important issues for traffic engineers and transportation planning managers. This study aimed to identify the factors affecting the anatomy and severity of injuries in traffic accidents. The statistical population includes accidents of police databases, emergency and hospitalization data of Rasool Akram Hospital during September 2017 until March 2019. In order to conduct the present study, at first the databases of the mentioned accidents were connected and the criterion of injury severity score (ISS) was used to evaluate injury severity. After that, the injury is divided into two categories: mild-moderate, serious and higher. And due to the imbalance of the categories, the logistic regression model is balanced by oversampling methods. The constructed models with balanced and imbalanced categories were compared with each other and the appropriate model was selected.
The results of the present study show that only 39% of the data is linked and some of traffic accidents are not present in the police database, and using emergency medical services(EMS) and hospital databases and connecting these databases to the police database can be of great help to analysts. The most common injuries were in the lower extremity and head-neck, and also the severity of mild injuries was highest . Among the various oversampling methods, the ADASYN method along with the logistic regression model showed better performance. It was also shown that the criterion for evaluating the performance of accuracy in an imbalanced data set is not appropriate and other criteria must be used. The results showed that the variables of gender, injury status, age, location use, lighting, direction of traffic, direct causes, fault status, time of accident, type of trauma, difference between time of accident and arrival at the hospital and the most severe site of injury affects the likelihood of serious injury. Based on these results, it is recommended that pedestrian crossing facilities be improved and restrictions be placed on the access of vulnerable users to non-residential areas, or that appropriate facilities be allocated to them. It is also possible to minimize the time of patient transfer to the hospital by increasing the number of emergency stations, equipping ambulances and further training of emergency medical staff, as well as increasing the number of medical units based on the spatial distribution of traffic accidents. Due to the fact that in the most severe anatomy variable, head injury has a high chance of serious injury, it is necessary to consider strict rules and high fines for not wearing a seat belt and helmet.
