چكيده به لاتين
Nowadays, regarding environmental instabilities and uncertainties, increasing complexity of public affairs management and execution of development plans, have become a concern to executive system and other policy and decision maker foundations.
One of the main distinctions between today's organizational environment and that of the past, is emergence and growth of the uncertainty phenomenon in the environment. The uncertainty of the environment means: the decisionmakers do not have sufficient information about the environmental factors. Thus, they face issues forecasting the change in the external environment.
Features driving environmental uncertainty boil down to two main dimensions: first dimension is concerned with the environmental complexity, which demonstrates the incongruity of the organization's external factors. The second dimension involves environmental dynamics. If a environment stays rather still for a certain period of time, it is called a relatively stable environment, otherwise the environment is known as unstable or dynamic. Existence of uncertain environment means, internal and external behaviors of the organization as well as its structure are flexible about uncertainty. One of the major reactions, uncertainty provokes in an organization, is stronger focus on planning and forecasting environmental conditions. In past decades, Scenario planning techniques have helped forecasting and planning methods in organizational decision making.
The importance of research: policy making for petrol have always been a controversial matter in Iran. Also, becoming a strategic and prime good in Iranian's perspective, petrol is now a product that its policies affect wide range of economic, political, environmental, and social subjects.
Research objective: regarding distribution of decision-making roles in different institutions, and necessity of systemic view for cohesion, effectiveness and efficiency of policies, this study presents a mixed and integrated procedure and approach for informed encountering and purposive management of petrol supply chain.
Research Method: in this research we first design a policy making map and its application in petrol supply chain management. Then, based on the objectives and practices suggested for implementation of policies, including demand management, supply chain optimization, pricing, sustainable development, smuggling control, in separated chapters each practice is analyzed and investigated. At the final stage of the research, with help of adaptive control, we will try to implement the policy map for smart control of smuggling.
Results: the results suggest, executing the sufficient pricing (increasing the price of petrol), along with allocation of direct subsidy the poverty gap index in first decade will cause increase in poverty gap up to 6 times as much as the current value. The reason is increasing the price of petrol, causes increase in cost pressure, especially to the poor households, and decrease their ability to use fuel. Thus, spreading the use of substitute fuels like CNG and PLG among vulnerable section of the society is necessary. On the other hand, public transportation should be rapidly boosted. So that in the first decade of increase in petrol price, the social indices take a decreasing trend.
