چكيده به لاتين
The increasing speed of change in the early decade of the 21st century has led to the formation of uncertainties in this age and environment with various opportunities and threats facing complex, dynamic, multidimensional systems with hidden structures such as the city. These rapid changes and uncertainties exist in various aspects of the city, including land-use. The high speed of change, its complexity and, dynamism have led to the inefficiency and unrealizability of land-use planning based on traditional methods and following the past and the current situation. Guidance and efforts to influence land-use change also form the core of land-use planning. Guiding these changes also requires identifying and analyzing the driving forces in the environment, their relationships, and the extent to which they are effective. Therefore, this study uses a futures research approach to identify and analyze the factors and driving forces of land-use change and ,ultimately land-use planning. Fahadan neighborhood in the historical context of Yazd is one of the areas that has faced many changes and changes in land-use in recent years. The wear and tear, abandonment, and migration of its inhabitants led to the change of residential use to warehousing, transportation etc, on the other hand, with the global registration of a range of it globally, most residential uses have been converted into commercial and tourism-hospitality uses such as restaurants, restaurants, and hotels. According to the researcher's documentary and field studies in the period 1388-1399, the percentage of commercial share has increased from 1.18 to 4.1 and the percentage of tourism-hospitality share has increased from 1.41 to 14.6. These rapid, uncontrolled changes, regardless of the authenticity and identity of the historical context and solely based on economic profitability, can lead to many pressures on the environment in the future, threatening to preserve the foundation of the historical context and cultural and historical heritage. Therefore, the primary purpose of this study is to present future land-use scenarios in Fahadan neighborhood of Yazd historical context, and its second purpose objectives are to identify critical factors and drivers of land-use change and determine the pattern of land-use system in Fahadan neighborhood of Yazd historical context. In order to achieve the research objectives, the research method is documentary and field studies. To extract the factors affecting land-use change, library resources have been studied, and 27 factors have been extracted. Then, in order to identify the key factors and drivers of land-use change in the study sample, Delphi technique and structural analysis method in MICMAC software have been used. Finally, to achieve the main goal,the CIB-based scripting method has been used in scenario wizard software. The results of the structural analysis show the location of Fahadan neighborhood of the drivers and nine factors of international competitiveness of building erosion, demand for any use or activity, proposals for upstream urban development plans, trade, and land rent, the dominant economic role of Yazd, Government and local policies, access to the road network and dependence on the oil economy are critical factors in land-use change in Fahadan neighborhood. Also, the results of scenario writing, four scenarios of conservation-oriented regeneration (optimal), scenario of continuation of the current situation, the scenario of purely economic and commercialization (intermediate) ,and the scenario of abandonment and destruction of historical values (pessimistic and critical) as future land-use in Fahadan neighborhood draws; The protection-centric regeneration scenario with a compatibility coefficient of 1 and the highest total score of the effects have been determined as the most probable scenario. Finally, four strategies and 17 policies have been devised to realize this scenario.
