چكيده به لاتين
Today, the tourism industry is an important factor in the economic development of societies and can bring many economic benefits by creating entrepreneurship, income and currency. The growth of tourism requires proper strategy and principled planning, and foresight is a process that makes it possible to make appropriate plans by analyzing the various conditions that may exist in the future. The development of the tourism industry is especially important for less developed areas that face problems such as unemployment, single-product economy, etc., and cause the migration of the young generation to metropolitan areas. Given the wide gap between tourism in metropolises and small towns and their surroundings, the purpose of this study is to plan how to change the scale of tourism from urban to regional and its impact on economic development of surrounding areas and to identify tourism development scenarios in these areas. This research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of nature based on new methods of futurism, research, analysis and exploration. Data collection was done by documentary and library methods and data collection method was also done by Delphi method. In order to analyze the data and identify the key factors affecting the tourism development of the settlements around the metropolis of Mashhad, first the MICMAC software was used and then the AHP-MICMAC combined method was used to evaluate the consistency of the experts' judgments. Then, in order to analyze the status of key factors in the future and scenario planning, Scenario Wizard software has been used.
Using the opinion of experts in the Delphi questionnaire, among 45 effective indicators taken from library studies, 32 indicators of high importance were selected and used . The results of the analysis show that among the 32 effective factors from the perspective of experts, 6 key factors are effective in the development of tourism in the settlements around the metropolis of Mashhad. For these factors, 16 possible situations were defined and after analyzing them, 4 strong and believable scenarios were identified which, due to the similarity of some scenarios, were divided into two categories of optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. Finally, using SWOT analysis and identifying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats of each scenario, the goal, strategy, policy and action plans are presented for them.
The most effective indicators of economic development in the suburbs of Mashhad are mainly in the institutional and managerial areas, and economic indicators, despite their high impact, depend on key indicators (mainly in the institutional and managerial areas) and if management issues improve, due to dependence. Other important indicators to these key indicators, the status of other indicators will also tend to favorable conditions and will lead to the development of tourism and, of course, the solution of many economic problems.
