چكيده به لاتين
Today for modeling complex systems, systems in which various factors, including human factors, are involved, modeling methodes such as agent-based modeling are used. Water resource systems are such systems that are directly affected by human behavior. agent-based modeling is used as an effective tool in modeling the behaviors of agents that have memory, specific characteristics, etc. In this study, to measure the behavioral components affecting farmers' water conservation behavior, a combination of agent-based model and health beliefs model has been used. This model has seven basic components including perceived severity, perceived susceptibility, perceived barriers, perceived benefits, self-efficacy, cues to action and general beliefs. In this proposed framework, in the first step, the economic situation of farmers was examined according to the crops that were harvested last year and the net income from it, and its comparison with the poverty line. In the second step, farmers who are in a suitable financial position (above the poverty line), according to the situation of water resources (wet or drought), through the predictions obtained by Bayesian network, decide whether to planting a crop with high water consumption or not. In the third step, the intention of farmers who have noticed drought through regional water agent is measured and according to the model of health beliefs, the intention of farmers (low, medium, and high) is obtained and they choose their cropping pattern according to their intentions.
The results of the model show that life below the poverty line of at least 60% of the farmers in the study area who are trying to meet their financial needs by using high-yield and profitable products.
The results of the validation of the proposed framework show the appropriate estimation of the model from the flow to Lake Urmia in comparison with the observational data of Shishvan hydrometric station. For this purpose, two statistical indices of root mean square error and Nash-Sutcliffe index were used and the numbers 0.268 and 0.912 were obtained for these indices, respectively, which are in a very suitable range. Also, the results of the proposed framework indicate a reduction in water consumption if the components of the health belief model change (social scenario) and also apply a low-water cultivation model for high-consumption farmers (environmental scenario).
