محمد محمودي

The increasing dependence of urban communities on infrastructure highlights the importance of resilience in the event of natural disasters, including earthquakes. Every society is made up of various infrastructures such as water supply, electricity, transportation, hospitals and so on. Every infrastructure to serve the community depends directly or indirectly on the electricity infrastructure. The power supply infrastructure consists of three main systems of electricity generation, transmission and distribution. Power substations, as nodes of the transmission and distribution network, are considered to be very vital nodes that it is important to maintain their serviceability after severe earthquakes. Loss of functionality in power substations after an earthquake can cause interruption across other lifelines. This study investigates the vulnerability and economic damage caused by the earthquake for the power substations in Tehran. In this research, two main goals were followed to eva‎luating extent of economic damage. the first objective was to develop seimic hazard models based on probabilistic risk analysis for determination of acceleration values for the return period of 475 and 2475 years for Tehran city. Secondly, developing a reliable data bank of substation equipment provided with the relevant prices. Finally, the amount of possible economic damage to power stations was eva‎luated using appropriate fragility curves. According to the analysis, the amount of damage to Tehran power substations for the return period of 475 years is about 506 billion Tomans and for the return period of 2475 years is about 1400 billion Tomans. The total value of electricity substations in Tehran is about 3300 billion Tomans. Therefore, it can be stated that for the return period of 475 years, the expected probable loss rate is about 15.3% of the assets, and for the return period of 2475 years, expected probable loss rate is about 42.4% of the assets. It should be noted that most of the substations in Tehran were built before the year 2012, when the seismic design manual of power substations was published. Therefore, reinforcement is one of the available solutions to reduce seismic damage and risk. In this study, the extent of damage to power substations in the case of reinforcing has also been investigated. The analysis shows that in the case of seismic reinforcement of power substations, the amount of damage will be reduced by 21.9% for the return period of 475 years and 18.3% for the return period of 2475 years.

خسارت اقتصادي ناشي از زلزله , ارزيابي ريسك لرزه اي , پست برق , تهران

Economic damage caused by earthquake , seismic risk assessment , power substation , Tehran

mohammad mahmoudi

seyed sajjad mirvalad