چكيده به لاتين
One of Iran's problems in the field of energy is its high energy consumption. This challenge obliges this country to make double efforts for optimal use of its energy resources and access to advanced technologies in energy production. There are also many reasons why Iran should use renewable energy sources. Currently, there are different types of energy sources, both renewable and non-renewable, in Iran; But it is very clear that in order to realize the desired benefits of the country, it is required to plan and make policies. A program that guarantees the use of existing potentials for energy production through renewable and non-renewable energies in the best way. It should also be compatible with other existing restrictions of the country. One of the requirements of this planning is that by specifying the prospect of energy production from each source, the country can provide the necessary facilities, regulate the market, and carry out the necessary policies and budget allocation. Also, in Iran, despite the fact that this is emphasized in the general policies of the government in the energy sector; But the composition of the energy portfolio is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, and so far the discussion of diversifying the country's energy portfolio has not been seriously included in the agenda of governments. Diversifying the energy portfolio causes that the various restrictions that may occur due to the specific geopolitical conditions of Iran, or the uncertainties that due to the specific weather conditions of the country that we are facing, cannot ensure the security of the country's energy supply as well as the amount of money spent on it. get into trouble Therefore, in order to diversify this portfolio and also use more renewable energies, it is necessary to formulate the necessary policies correctly and optimally and put them on the agenda. In this research, an attempt was made to calculate this value in a case study of Iran and to develop its calculation model by considering various factors affecting electricity demand through systems dynamics. Also, in the next step, according to the cost of energy production from different sources, it should be possible to identify the most economical and at the same time the most efficient combination of energy production from different sources, which is clear despite uncertainties such as weather issues, different prices of energy carriers, different levels of demand, etc. it is not possible to obtain exact numbers; Rather, efforts should be made to reduce the risk by considering these uncertainties. In this study, a multi-stage random portfolio is also proposed.
