حسين شاكرلاطران

The purpose of this research was to analyze the risk of cash flow and provide a decision support system using genetic algorithms. For this purpose, identifying and eva‎luating the effects of several factors on cash flow forecasting has been the focus of this research. In order to analyze the cash flow risk in this research, the information of a case construction project has been used. The case project of this research is an 8-unit apartment in the east of Tehran, which was started in October 2018 and was supposed to be put into operation after 16 months in March 2020. The construction operation of this project includes 22 main stages. In this research, a decision support system based on an Excel spreadsheet has been designed, which consists of 6 worksheets, one worksheet for introduction and five worksheets for data entry and cash flow analysis. In the following, based on the designed DSS, the effects of changes in the model parameters on the cash flow of the project have been analyzed. The results of the research showed that the share of pre-sale of residential units (with a fixed price), the rate of received facilities and the share of overhead costs in the total construction costs, compared to other factors (wage growth, inflation rate and exchange rate) have a greater effect on They have cash flow risk.

جريان نقدينگي , مديريت پروژه , مديريت ريسك , سيستم پشتيبان تصميم گيري , مديريت ساخت

Cash Flow , Project management , Risk management , Decision Support System , Construction management

Hossein Shaker Lataran

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Ali Akbar Shirzadi Javid