محمد تقي طاحونه

The failure rate is one of the most important and influential indicators used in examining the reliability and reliability of electricity distribution networks. The main concerns have been electricity distribution companies and distribution regulators. In order to prevent the creation of risk in companies and to ensure their encouragement to improve the reliability of the distribution system, companies should calculate the failure rate with a low approximation and error. Several factors such as asset life, geographic factors, culture of dealing with facilities, urban planning, etc. affect the failure rate. It is practically impossible to take all these factors into account and achieve a reasonable failure rate. Also, the insufficient investment of electricity distribution companies in the past years is an important factor in the aging of assets and determining the level of failure. On the other hand, the investment process of electricity distribution companies is influenced by the failure rate accepted by the regulator for each distribution company. In this thesis, 2 innovative models are presented to calculate and estimate the failure rate of assets in the electricity distribution network, and the effects of HILP incidents on this index are investigated. In the first model, using the investment process and the total value of the assets of electricity distribution companies in each year, a model is presented to estimate the amount of network failure. The failure rate calculated in this model can help the regulator in allocating funds to electricity distribution companies and determining fines and rewards. In the second model, using the normal distribution function to model the life span, failure relationships and using the time series to calculate the failure rate of the networked asset system. In the second model, the difference between the failure rate of a network of assets and the failure rate of a fixed asset is investigated. This method can help the user in the qualitative eva‎luation of the manufacturers and can determine the warranty policy and insurance of the products and sales for the manufacturers so that it can be set as a criterion for optimal eva‎luation. In order to validate the presented models, information from Iran's electricity distribution companies has been used and the results have been presented.

شبكه توزيع برق , نرخ خرابي , شبكه دارايي‌ها , ارزش دارايي‌ها , حوادث HILP , سرمايه‌گذاري

electricity distribution network , failure rate , asset network , Asset worth , HILP incidents , investment

Mohammad Taghi Tahoone

Dr. Reza Dashti