چكيده به لاتين
Iran has not been far away from this field due to the imposed post-war conditions and has three decades of experience in creating new cities. After three decades of the implementation of this urban development policy, these expectations have not been met and criticisms have been raised regarding its goals, policies and solutions. Today, the concern of urban development and the creation of new cities is not only the creation of settlements and the decentralization of population from metropolises. Moreover, attention and respect for the environment and sustainable development, attention to identity and culture, attention to modern technologies, better balance of life and attention to social welfare are also of special importance. In this research, an attempt was made to apply some of the methods, techniques and tools of future research in the process of urban planning and identifying the key drivers of city development in the current conditions of change, uncertainty and complexity, and to build and map a desirable and preferred future for the new cities of the country. did In the second chapter of this research, an attempt has been made to present the concepts and concepts of futurism, new cities and back casting planning and its characteristics, as well as the characteristics, components and key principles of their realization in new cities. In this chapter, the topics, concepts, history and nature of the main keywords were explained in a general way in order to achieve the conceptual model and identify the indicators and criteria that influence the future research of new cities.
. In the third chapter of the research, data analysis methods were investigated, and in this research, the normative paradigm of future research and the back casting planning approach were used. In the fourth chapter, in order to determine the key factors and key drivers of development in the future of the new city of Sadra, the mutual effects analysis method was used in the MICMAC software. Then, the output information from this stage was entered into Wizard Scenario software based on the CIB-based scenario writing method, so that the future scenarios of the new city of Sadra can be compiled and presented. After identifying strong and probable scenarios, believable scenarios with high compatibility and incompatible scenarios, according to the research approach which is back casting planning, the most favorable scenario for the future of the realization of Sadra city was determined among all the selected scenarios. At the end of the research, based on the normative nature of future studies and back casting planning, the strategic plan of the proposed scenario was presented in the form of a vision statement, goals, strategies and policies were developed, and it is expected that the use of this proposed plan will improve the quality of life and the desired future. to provide the horizon of 1420 for the city of Sadra.
