عليرضا يگانه

In this research, has presented a comprehensive model of the Iran's iron and steel industry by system dynamics approach to adopt different possible scenarios about supply of energy and raw materials used in this industry. Hence, a system dynamics model was proposed to estimate the demand for steel in the coming years in Iran and by this model. Having precise estimation about future steel demand will help us planning future steel production capacity, energy sources and raw materials needed to cover this demand. The results of adopting possible scenarios of Iran's steel consumption per capita targets show that to have steel consumption per capita same as developed countries, we will need to increase the production capacity of the steel industry. In the case of the energy sector, the policy of reforming the price of natural gas delivered to the steel industry was also eva‎luated. The results show, due to low price elasticity of natural gas in the steel industry، of Iran, In order to reduce gas consumption in this sector seriously, this price reformation must be significant in order to affect energy demand. On the other hand, with the adoption of high steel consumption per capita scenario, the consumption of iron ore in the coming years will reach more than the possible threshold of extraction and processing of iron ore of Iran, which will increase the need of the Iran's steel industry to increase capacity of iron ore processing or iron ore import. Also, in this study the possibility of the application of rotational economics in the steel industry was studied. In the model the effect of using scrap steel in saving iron ore resources was studied. The results of the study show that the reuse of scrap steel in steel production, in addition to addressing the challenges of solid waste, can be a sensible way to delay the shortage of primary sources of steel production. Also, the results of the model show that due to the high lifetime of steel products to be converted to scraps, the policy of importing scrap steel can be more effective in this case.

صنعت آهن و فولاد , قراضه فولاد , تامين مواد اوليه , اقتصاد چرخشي , بهينه‌سازي مصرف انرژي

Iron and Steel industry , System Dynamicsn , Circular Economy , steel scrap , Energy consumption optimization

Alireza Yeganeh

Saeid Mirzamohammadi