Modeling Universal Basic Income an‎d Its Effects on selec‎ted Economic Indicators in Iran

7/15/2025 12:00:00 AM

This research aims to analyze the effects of Universal Basic Income (UBI) on Iran’s key economic indicators, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation rate, income inequality (Gini coefficient), an‎d unemployment rate, within the framework of three financing scenarios: oil-based, tax-based, an‎d subsidy-based. Using advanced Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models an‎d Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), time-series data from 2001 to 2023, sourced from reliable domestic institutions such as the Central Bank of Iran an‎d the Statistical Center of Iran, were examined. By contextualizing UBI for the specific features of Iran’s economy—such as chronic inflation an‎d dependency on oil revenues—this study provides an innovative framework for policymaking. The findings indicate that the subsidy-based scenario is the most effective approach, yielding significant positive effects on economic growth, a substantial reduction in income inequality, a moderate increase in inflation, an‎d minimal impact on unemployment. The oil-based scenario leads to strong economic growth but is accompanied by considerable inflation, while the tax-based scenario strengthens economic growth an‎d reduces unemployment but has a weaker effect on inequality. By offering practical policy recommendations, this research paves the way for implementing UBI tailored to the conditions of Iran’s economy, contributing to sustainable growth an‎d economic justice.

درآمد پايه جهاني , مدل‌سازي اقتصادي , نابرابري درآمدي , رشد اقتصادي , تورم , بيكاري , سياست‌گذاري

Universal Basic Income , Economic Modeling , DSGE , VECM , Income Inequality , Economic Growth , Inflation , Unemployment , Policy Design

seyed Amirhossein Mortazavi

Dr. Saeed Mirzamohammadi