رضا عبدالهي تهراني

Reliability, as one of the most critical performance indicators in the aviation industry, plays a fundamental role in ensuring safety, reducing maintenance costs, an‎d increasing the useful life of equipment. In this research, the reliability modeling of repairable systems in the aviation industry was conducted using flight engine failure data an‎d relying on the Weibull statistical model within the framework of the Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP). For data analysis, the model parameters were first estimated using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method. Subsequently, to increase statistical accuracy an‎d eva‎luate the stability of the estimators, synthetic data were simulated based on the Weibull distribution. The results showed that the shape parameter (β) was greater than 1, indicating an increasing trend in the failure rate over time; consequently, the systems exhibit wear-out behavior. Based on the analysis of the survival, density, an‎d failure rate functions, it was determined that the probability of flawless operation is high up to approximately 300 operating hours, but after that, the failure rate increases significantly. These findings confirm the importance of implementing preventive maintenance at optimal intervals. The NHPP model based on the Weibull distribution was able to accurately describe the failure behavior of aviation systems an‎d provided a scientific basis for designing predictive maintenance policies. Furthermore, using the Superposition System model an‎d the Power Law model, the overall fleet failure intensity function was modeled. The obtained results can be used for maintenance planning, optimization of repair resources, an‎d reducing the risk of failure in flight missions.

قابليت اعتماد , صنعت هوايي , نگهداري , قابليت اطمينان هواپيما

reliability , aviation industry , maintenance , aircraft reliability

reza abdollahi tehrani

dr reza ahmadi