Dynamic Modeling of Interaction between Ports an‎d Cities: A Case of Anzali

12/21/2023 12:00:00 AM

Today, cities around ports are affected by portsʹ economic developments an‎d in addition to economic dimensions, they are also influenced by ports in terms of social an‎d environmental aspects. With the increasing global economic growth, international transportation of raw materials an‎d commodities has increased an‎d this has led industrial activities to increasingly move toward ports. As a result, the relationship between ports an‎d cities is becoming closer an‎d more intertwined than the past. In this regard, the pattern of behavior an‎d characteristics f the port-city system depends on its internal an‎d external dynamic structural relationships considering connectivity complexities. Therefore, a port has all the conditions of a complex system both within itself an‎d in interaction with its surrounding environment. One of the important regions in the north of the country that plays an important role annually in the national gross domestic product an‎d has many interactions as a port-city system with its surrounding city of Anzali is the Anzali region, an‎d most of the interactions between this region an‎d the city are dynamic. This research aims to study the relationship between the port an‎d urban systems in Anzali an‎d provide solutions to improve performance using a system dynamic modeling approach. After drawing cause an‎d effect diagrams including important loops such as the loop of the portʹs role in trade-transport activities, the loop of the portʹs feedback role in city an‎d regional development, an‎d the loop of sustainable environmental management in the port system, statistical data related to 2016-2022 will be collected an‎d simulated for 2016-2032 using a moving average method. Then, the port-city system model will be developed an‎d behavioral patterns of variables will be analyzed using Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis. The findings show that port developments have had a positive impact on the cityʹs economic growth; but it faces challenges such as fluctuations in imports an‎d exports. Accordingly, proposals are made to increase organizational coordination, invest in infrastructure, an‎d adopt incentive policies.This research, using a system dynamics modeling methodology, is considered a reference for port an‎d city planning an‎d policymaking.

بندر - شهر، مدل‌سازي سيستم‌هاي پويا، تحليل حساسيت مونت‌كارلو، توسعه اقتصادي، عملكرد بنادر

Port – City, System Dynamic Modeling, Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis, Economic Development, Port Performance

Seyyedeh Razieh Rafkhani

Dr. Mohammad Mohammadpour Omran/Dr. Saeed Yaghoubi