Investigation an‎d prioritization of factors for project selec‎tion based on multi-criteria decision making for implementation in Iran Petrochemical Industry

2/9/2027 12:00:00 AM

The capital-intensive, technology-driven, an‎d long-term nature of projects in the petrochemical industry has made decision-making regarding project selec‎tion a highly complex an‎d sensitive process. The main objective of this research is to identify an‎d prioritize the factors affecting project selec‎tion in the petrochemical industry using a fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach. To this end, the required data were first collected through a questionnaire based on the opinions of experts in the petrochemical industry. In order to account for the uncertainty inherent in experts’ judgments, the data obtained from the Likert scale were transformed into triangular fuzzy numbers. Moreover, considering the differences in the level of expertise an‎d experience of the experts, their weights were calculated using the Shannon entropy method. Subsequently, two multi-criteria decision-making methods were employed to prioritize the project selec‎tion factors. In the first stage, the TOPSIS method was applied as a comparative approach, an‎d then the fuzzy MARCOS method was used as the main decision-making method of the study. After calculating the required indices an‎d obtaining the final ranking of factors, rank reversal analysis was conducted to examine the stability of the results. The findings indicate that the rankings of project selec‎tion factors obtained from the TOPSIS an‎d fuzzy MARCOS methods exhibit an acceptable level of consistency. Based on the obtained results, product market stability (in terms of time) an‎d the availability of technology an‎d valid technical knowledge were determined as the first an‎d second priorities in both methods. Furthermore, the results of the rank reversal analysis demonstrate the stability of the final rankings an‎d confirm the reliability of the proposed framework for decision-making under uncertainty. Overall, the framework presented in this research can serve as an effective tool to support managers’ decision-making in selec‎ting projects for implementation in the petrochemical industry.

انتخاب طرح , سرمايه گذاري در صنعت پتروشيمي , روش آنتروپي شانون , روش تاپسيس , روش ماركوس فازي

Project selec‎tion , Investment in the Petrochemical Industry , Shannon Entropy Method , TOPSIS Method , Fuzzy MARCOS Method

Zahra Sadat Hal Ataie

Dr. Mostafa Jafari