نرگس ميرگلوي بيات

The planning fallacy, as an important cognitive bias, can affect decision quality an‎d execution performance in entrepreneurial processes. The purpose of this study is to explain an‎d test the effect of the “planning fallacy” on two key components of the opportunity-creation process: “opportunity discovery” an‎d “opportunity exploitation.” This research is applied in purpose an‎d descriptive–survey in method. Data were collected from 192 Iranian entrepreneurs using a questionnaire, an‎d partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) was employed to analyze relationships an‎d test the hypotheses. Model eva‎luation included assessing measurement-model quality (outer loadings an‎d evidence of reliability an‎d validity), eva‎luating the structural model (collinearity, explanatory power, effect size, an‎d the significance of path coefficients using bootstrapping), an‎d examining predictive power using Q²_predict an‎d comparison with a benchmark model. The findings indicated that the effect of the planning fallacy on opportunity discovery is not statistically significant an‎d its effect size is negligible. Moreover, the explanatory power for the opportunity discovery construct was very low, suggesting that variations in this construct within the present model are largely explained by factors other than the study’s independent variable. In contrast, the effect of the planning fallacy on opportunity exploitation was negative an‎d statistically significant an‎d, in terms of effect magnitude an‎d explained variance, fell within a notable range; that is, as optimistic an‎d unrealistic planning estimates increase, the level of opportunity exploitation decreases. Complementing these results, the predictive assessment showed weaker performance for indicators related to opportunity discovery, whereas for opportunity exploitation indicators the results at the item level were more acceptable; however, at the construct level, predictive performance remained limited an‎d somewhat borderline. Overall, the results suggest that the planning fallacy plays a more inhibiting an‎d negative role in the execution an‎d realization of opportunities than in the opportunity identification stage. Therefore, focusing managerial an‎d educational interventions on making estimates more realistic, revising timelines an‎d resources, an‎d controlling optimism in planning may help improve opportunity exploitation. Keywords: Planning fallacy; entrepreneurial process; opportunity discovery; opportunity exploitation; partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM).

مغالطه برنامه‌ريزي , فرايند كارآفريني , كشف فرصت , بهره‌برداري از فرصت , معادلات ساختاري مبتني بر حداقل مربعات جزئي (PLS-SEM).

Planning fallacy , entrepreneurial process , opportunity discovery , opportunity exploitation , partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM).

narges mirgaloye bayat

Dr. MohammadReza Parsanejad