چكيده به لاتين
Abstract
Nowadays,one of the most important management issues of flood and drought, is forecasting of river flows. Therefore, one of the most important climate parameters in using of water resources is forecasting. and studies in this field is necessary in order to do forecast correctly that farmers in agriculture and water resource planners will be succeed without suffered irreputable damages.One of the method of discharge forecasting, using time series which is a powerful tool to forecast the discharge requirements. Time series models such as ARIMA and SARIMA models to forecast river flows are fitted. But since river flows series are periodically stationary, an important class of this models is priodic autoregressive moving average model(PARMA). In this model, mean, standard deviation and correlation functions are vary significantly with the season.
Keywords: forecating, time series, PARMA, ARIMA, SARIMA
