16624

16624

طراحي مدلي پويا براي بررسي آثار اجتماعي و اقتصادي در فرايند توليد و انباشت سرماية اجتماعي (مطالعة موردي: معاونت امور مهندسي وزارت نفت)

كارشناسي ارشد

مهندسي سيستم هاي اقتصادي و اجتماعي

تير 1395

دكتر ابراهيم تيموري

دكتر ميرسامان پيشوايي

صنايع

1395/11/25

1/1/1900 12:00:00 AM

Abstract: “Social Capital” is being considered as a key concept in a wide range of social science disciplines. In this research, this concept will be deployed to analyse the economic value arising from trust networks an​d normalisation of social participation. Social capital is a means that meaningfully alleviates social an​d organisational costs. Moreover, it functions as a “social glue” an​d “economic lubricant”, thereby increasing the efficiency of social an​d economic systems that rely on human interactions. A large number of studies have been devoted to the concept of social capital. Yet, most studies have been carried by means of quantitative models based on statistical theories an​d binary logic. In contrast, this research seeks to offer a systemic approach to social capital. As such, this approach employs dynamic models, fuzzy logic, an​d system dynamics methodology. The main question of this research is: how is social capital being shaped an​d accumulated? As such, this research seeks to describe the mechanism, by which social capital amounts to (mutual) interest, in the context of complex human relations with diverse an​d contrasting perspectives. A possible answer to this question has been prepared by taking account of earlier research an​d theoretical frameworks -developed by twelve experts in this field- in combination with the insights provided by the system dynamics methodology. The first step is to analyse an​d classify the main an​d complementary variables present in the process of formation an​d accumulation of social capital. To that end, Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) is being deployed. Second, in order to assess the social an​d economic impact of social capital on social functions an​d organisational structures, three mechanisms, i.e. “trust-based interaction”, “communication channels”, an​d “effective sanctions an​d norms”, are being examined. Using Venism software, a general model could be simulated, in which these mechanisms are unified. In turn, our analysis of balancing loops an​d reinforcing loops an​d fulcra offer a deeper understanding of system’s behaviour of the proposed eightfold policies. Considering model’s structure an​d system’s behaviour, an​d analysing the sensitivity level of proposed policies, one could map out three scenarios: optimistic, pessimistic an​d a normal scenario. Finally, a comparison of the most likely scenario with the current state of affaires an​d the initial state of the actual system - Case Study: Iran ministry of petroleum - Deputy Minister in Engineering Affairs - allows us to select the optimal policy for the implementation of long-term reforms in the actual system. Keywords: Social capital, trust, social norms, network, communication, systemic approach, system dynamics.