چكيده به لاتين
According to the transportation development and fuel consumption rule, railway transportation of freights had reach the 30 percent share of total national transportation in 2011 that regarding the execution trend of this rule, this objective was postponed to 2015. In this accordance, regarding implementation of decisions like railway privatization and targeted subsidies Act, solutions like change in tariff system can be helpful. Hence, tariff change in the situations that opponents provide same service cannot absorb much demand for the railway transportation until the customers lose their doubts about time, speed and ease of transportation. That is because the customers pay the difference in cost to transport their shipment by road transportation with an acceptable level of certainty. In other words, customers consider ease of planning transportation by road, regardless to railway excellence and cost advantage. Such conditions have decreased railway share and increased road share of transportation in recent years that is against the country’s macro policies I the field of transportation.
To find best strategies and solutions to improve the situation above, Robust strategic plaaning is used in this research to consider uncertainties in freight transportation competitive market and system dynamics to consider feedbacks among profit and railway transportation share of market.
Results of this reseach show that “Increasing competitive power vs. road strategy”, “Increasing manpower efficiency strategy” and “increasing freight transportation speed” are the most useful strategies respectively for problem status improvement. Also, in the circumstances of government supporting railway transportation, each of the strategies show an average of 115 percent better performance. Practically, it is possible to have a 20 percent decrease in right of access for railway transportation companies and giving them the initiative to decrease 13 percent of freight transportation tariff. In addition, by proper mobility planning and adding 20 percent to the rolling stock tolerance capacity, railway share can reach to 30 percent (desired) until 2020 while increasing transportation companies.
