چكيده به لاتين
Abstract:
With 137.6 billion barrels of oil, Iran accounted for 10.3 percent of global oil reserves, and with 29.61 trillion cubic meters (15.8 percent of the world's gas reserves); first in the Middle East and the second in the world. So the oil and gas transmission industry plays a significant role in the economic movement of the country and in the extraction of energy resources and its products. Transportation of crude oil and its products is carried out in a variety of ways, including the largest share of transmission, is the responsibility of the transmission pipelines. Due to the wide range of pipelines in different areas of the facility, or even residential and various geographic regions, as well as the high potential of vulnerability, safety of pipelines and observance of the principles of its risk management is of particular importance. In order to assess the risk of all industrial activities, including the oil and gas transmission industry, several methods are used that the fuzzy bow-tie method is one of these. Bow-tie method is a qualitative-quantitative method whose data are based on the indicators determined by the Kent-Muhlbauer method, which is itself a kind of specialty bow-tie of pipelines and also collected through interviews with experts. In this research, the risk assessment of Isfahan oil pipelines district as the second most impassable oil pipelines in the world, using the bow-tie method in conjunction with fuzzy logic, is based on the Likert scale method for quantifying the verbal and linguistic data provided by the experts in the gripper with the operation of pipelines maintenance. Firstly, the factors affecting the safety of the transmission pipelines were identified through the preparation of a checklist, and then, using the method mentioned in the interview with the experts who together have about six hundred years of experience in the field of the oil transfer industry, evaluated The risk of pipelines has been studied. After the corresponding calculations were made a total of 50 causes or defects (34 root causes and 16 intermediate events) are involved in the occurrence of a major leakage or fracture of oil pipelines. In the meantime four intermediate causes: "Fatigue of pipelines caused by corrosion, corrosion due to soil factors, erosion of pipes due to corrosion and damage from third party activities" respectively with probability 97.27%, 90.60%, 88.93% and 81.41% probability of occurrence have and the consequence of environmental damage is a probability of occurrence of 84.57% of the most recurring event which this is consistent with the data recorded in the Isfahan district, which is clearly evident in most of the vast events.
Keywords: Isfahan oil pipelines Safety managemt, Fuzzy Bow-tie, FTA, ETA
