چكيده به لاتين
Abstract:
The projects' portfolio is a beneficial tool for fransferring the strategic requirements of the organization to the projects and operational activities. The portfolio's risk can have an effect on the factors associated with the portfolio's success and dominate the achievement of the strategic's targets of the organization. In spite of the significant role of the portfolio's risk management, proper analyses regarding various projects' risks of portfolio are not proposed yet. The objective of this research is to introduce some solutions for reducing the risk of the projects' portfolio. Considering the point that the risks of portfolio level are unknown, the first step of this project is the clarification of the projects' risks of portfolio.
First of all,the factors which cause the portfolios not to reach their targets or to fail, are detected and proposed as the portfolio's risk. In this stage, similar risks were categorized in same groups.
Then, the probability of the occurrence of such risks and also their effects on the projects' portfolios providing their occurrence, were asked from professionals through questionnaire. In the next step, risks were evaluated from this aspect and then the probability-effect matrix was developed for each of the above-mentioned risks and the most important risks were categorized. It is significant to note that this research is done for various organizations in order that the comparison is able to be performed on the results of various organizations. The most important risks of the portfolio level are as follows:
The effects of the change in the currency rate, the increase of the materials' price or energy transportation on all projects' portfolio, the detrimental effect of the economic stagnation or inflation on the portfolio, the project's portfolio's encounter with problems providing unability to assigning resources to the selected projects, Threat on the project "A" when the project "B" is in danger provided that the project "A" is dependent on the knowledge or the ability resulting from operating the project "B", and the frequent and rapid changes of roles, responsibilities, and organizational platform.
Then, the solutions for reducing such risks are asked from professionals through questionnaire and the most significant solutions are reported.
Keywords: Projects' Risks of Portfolio, The Probability-Effect Analysis of Risks ,Solutions for Reducing Risks
