چكيده به لاتين
Abstract:
In this research, the use of the Multivariate Exponentially-Weighted Moving Average (MEWMA) for improving the performance of the Earned Value Management (EVM) has been considered as a powerful tool for project improvement through monitoring and detecting deviations from the project plan and its effects on overall project performance in a case study related to a hotel project has been studied. The analysis method involves two quantitative aspects, including statistical calculations, simulation and use of soft wares such as Excel, Minitab and SPSS, and the qualitative aspect includes the use of analytical and reasoning techniques. Four indexes of Cost Performance Index (CPI), Schedule Performance Index (SPI), Cost Variance (CV) and Schedule Variance (SV) were defined as the main indicators of Earned Value Management. Analysis of the indexes was performed using an MEWMA control diagram, which uses individual observations like CUSUM control diagram. In order to ensure the correlation between the data to select the appropriate control chart, the Minitab software was used and the R-software also was used to check the normality of the data. Examination of the correlation between Cost Variance and Schedule Variance showed that there was no correlation between these indexes. Therefore, after checking the normality of the indexes, which showed that there is no need for normalization in all cases, after only one stage of deleting data outside the control for specific reasons, the MEWMA diagram for the Cost Variance and Schedule Variance was drawn successfully. The Upper Control Limit (UCL) was obtained at 7.347. Finally, the control diagram was successfully used to monitor the second phase of the project, which indicated that in the second phase, the project was appropriately under the control at all stages.
