چكيده به لاتين
Natural gas is one of the most important energy sources in the global energy market. Twenty-five percent of the world's energy comes from natural gas. In Iran, natural gas accounts for 67% of total primary energy consumption. Moreover, Iran holds the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves which are 17% of the world’s proved natural gas reserves as well as more than one-third of OPEC’s reserves.
Also, Iran ranks among the world’s top 5 natural gas producers. Iran produced an estimated 7.2 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas in 2017. Iran’s primary energy consumption has grown rapidly over the past decade. In fact, between 2006 and 2016, Iran’s primary energy consumption expanded by about 40%.
Because of the reasons mentioned above, supply chain management in natural gas has a significant role in the global market. This thesis has presented an integrated model for natural gas supply chain and LNG supply chain under demand uncertainty. The natural gas and LNG supply chain contains seven levels including suppliers, producers such as refineries and liquefaction centers, regasification centers, wholesalers, type one distributers(compressor stations), type two distributors(city gas stations) and the last but not the least, consumers( well injection, domestic-commercial, power plant, and export). The mathematical model minimizes all of the costs of the supply chain including supply costs from gas wells and import, the production cost from refineries and liquefaction centers, the operational cost in the compressor station, city gate stations, and regasification centers.
Also, the demands of the consumers have assumed uncertain. Due to satisfy consumers' demand comprehensively, the necessity measure used in fuzzy chance-constrained programming. The presented MILP model was coded using GAMS. Real data from the gas supply chain of Iran was used to demonstrate the performance of the model and sensitivity analysis had conducted on the parameters. Results indicate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed model to minimize the costs of the Iran natural gas and LNG supply chain.
Keywords: Natural Gas, Natural Gas Supply Chain, LNG Supply Chain, Uncertainty, Fccp
