چكيده به لاتين
Housing is a today's human need that plays an important role in creating a sense of peace and security for households. In the past two decades, with the onset of the urban rebuilding/development and apartment living, both buyers/builders and government/investors have had a new look toward the housing industry; one that can be the basis for the economic growth and boom other industries. In the past years, as the housing demand increased, the housing price increased too; hence, Maskan Bank, a governmental entity specialized in the subject of housing in Iran, increased the mortgage loans, but this increase did not conform to that of the housing price in the related market. On the other hand, as the society’s average income remained unchanged, the difference between the applicants' savings and the housing price index grew considerably day by day. This research presents a dynamic system-based model of the housing market that includes sub-systems of the bank and housing price, and addresses the issue that if mortgages increased, would the bank resources suffice to pay them, and what would be the effects on the housing price?
Results of this study, after implementing, testing, and evaluating the model with different scenarios, show that with an increase in mortgages, the bank will face a resource shortage and increased liquidity risks. On the other hand, increased mortgages will also increase the related demand, and investors who, in the absence of efficient financial markets and profit, enter the housing market due to increased mortgages, will cause an increase in the housing price. Since after the bank pays mortgages, deferred installments and, hence, the credit risk will increase compared to the past, installments will be repaid and the risk will reduce if the mortgage structure is changed and loans are insured.
