چكيده به لاتين
The innovation financing system is of great importance in the way the country is moving towards a knowledge-based economy. Different support institutions are involved in the innovation financing system, ranging from universities to ministries, research and development support funds, and technology development funds. Technology development funds are developmental institutions that finance the commercialization process. Given the constraints of financial resources, especially in developing countries, technology prioritization is important for governments in determining science and technology policies, and a variety of approaches have been proposed to prioritize and allocate financial resources to the technologies. Optimized and targeted allocation of government resources to technology priorities plays an important role in the appropriate management of resources and enhancing the technological capabilities of the country as well as enhancing the role of innovative enterprises in the economic and social development of the country. This planning can guide science and technology policy makers in enhancing the effectiveness of the research and development supportive plans.
The focus of this thesis is on providing a model for technological projects’ portfolio planning and optimizing governmental technology development funds’ supportive plans under uncertainty. The proposed framework covers two decision modes: In the first mode, a multicriteria model has been presented for assessment and selection of technological projects. This model, considering different criteria in 5 categories of enterprise, technology, risk, finance and market analysis, provides the possibility of assessment and selection of technological projects and leads to increasing the accuracy and reliability of the decision-making process. In the second mode, a mathematical model is presented to optimize the portfolio of technological projects.
In this model, considering the strategic goals of technology development funds (such as the Iran National Innovation Fund (INIF)) in increasing the share of knowledge-based companies in GDP and helping to achieve the knowledge-based economy, minimizing the risk of technological projects of knowledge-based companies and maximizing their income has been taken into account. Also in the model, issues such as different types of financing methods (different interest rate, moratorium period and repayment period), step-by-step allocation of funds according to the technological progress, moratorium period for repayment of facilities, reinvestment of financial resources gained from repayment of facilities, interdependencies and inconsistencies between the different projects and the uncertainty in the allocation of the budget to the fund has been taken into account.
The main innovation of this dissertation is in using mixed quantitative-qualitative research method in the problem modeling, presenting a multi-criteria model for assessment and selection of technological projects at the national level by combining factor analysis and best-worst method (BWM) and developing a two-stage probabilistic model by combining best-worst methods and sample average approximation (SAA) method in order for planning a portfolio of technological projects.
