چكيده به لاتين
Undoubtedly, in recent years, the move towards the use of renewable resources by research centers and countries has attracted special attention. International agreements such as the Paris Agreement, as well as the declining cost of exploiting these resources, can be cited as key factors in this process. However, the proper use of the potential of renewable resources in developing countries that face increasing energy demand and barriers to political and economic conditions necessitates the encouragement of foreign investment and the private sector. Achieving this aim depends on providing an appropriate solution to two key issues: estimating the impact of political risks and economic evaluation of long-term investment on renewable projects. In developing countries, renewable projects must ensure clean energy and sustainable economic development programs. To this end, the risk of uncertainties, such as changing the economic conditions of the host country, must be carefully considered. Methods previously used for economic evaluation do not perform well due to the use of the same discount rate at long-term returns for valuing and reviewing the decision-making process for investing in renewable projects. In this study, a hybrid model based on the assessment of real authority and fuzzy inference system in order to investigate economically and assess the investment risk in renewable projects in developing countries is presented. In addition, a solar power plant project to validate the introduced model has been studied. The model offered to the investor as well as the host country is expected to help with economic valuation and investment risk assessment in renewable projects.
