چكيده به لاتين
Transportation is considered as the basic sectors of every country's economy and are referred to as the development of the country. On the other hand, one of the problems of the road transport system is traffic accidents, which lead to deaths, human injuries and financial damages. Accident's heavy social, cultural and economic effects have severely threatened human societies. The development of a transportation network along with safety can improve the quality of human life. In evaluating the factors affecting fatal accidents, researchers mainly analyze the accidents of this group of users at the micro level and in the form of regression models with discrete dependent variables. Today, preventive safety planning, with the approach that road safety planning can be part of transportation planning, has led to regression models with discrete dependent variable accidents to replace models that analyze safety indicators at the micro level.
In this study, the effect of various parameters such as road type, distance from police, type of collision, collision time, vehicle weight, etc. in the rural area of Markazi province was investigated by linear probability and logit methods. In this research, by analyzing the data of suburban roads of Markazi province and the data used in transportation planning of Arak city, the factors affecting fatal accidents were investigated. The results suggest that the most common causes of rural area accidents are death, bone fractures and head injuries. Nearly 80% of all road deaths are due to these two causes. The results of the logit model also showed that distance from the police, type of road, sleep time, collision model and vehicle weight are the most influential factors that describe fatal accidents on suburban routes at an acceptable level. Also in different types of accidents, modeling results indicate that if two vehicles collide with each other compared to other cases, the probability of fatal accidents increases by up to 4%. It should be noted that based on the types of fatal accidents, vehicle-to-vehicle accidents have the highest number. So that 51.5% of fatal accidents are vehicle-to-vehicle accidents.
