25183

بررسي تأثير رفتارهاي سيستمي جبران كسري بودجه دولت و خلق نقدينگي بر توليد ملي ايران: يك تحليل پويايي شناسي سيستم

كارشناسي ارشد

علوم اقتصادي گرايش برنامه ريزي سيستم هاي اقتصادي

1396

شهريور 1400

دكتر عليرضا معيني

مهندسي پيشرفت

وجود پيچيدگي پويا در سيست مهاي طبيعي، اجتماعي و اقتصادي باعث م يشود اين سيست مها در برابر سياس تگذار ي مقاومت نشان بدهند. در سيست مهاي اقتصادي، عقلانيت محدود سياس تگذاران باعث ميشود با تأخير بيشتري به وجود اين پيچيدگيها پي ببرند. از سوي ديگر، انواع مختلف و در همتنيدهاي از تأخير در دريافت، پردازش و واكنش به سياس تها در فرآيندهاي توليدي و در مجموع سيستم اقتصا د كشورهاي در حال توسعه وجود دارد كه باعث ميشود مقاومت در برابر سياس تگذاري در اين كشورها بيشتر از كشورهاي توسع هيافته قابل رديابي و مشاهده باشد. در اين پژوهش سعي شده است ابزار پوياي يشناسي سيستم حسابداري براي تحليل پيچيدگ يهاي پويا در سيستم اقتصادي ايران معرفي شود و به عنوان نمونه تأثير سياس تهاي جبران كسري بودجه دولت بر توليد كشور در يك مدل چهار بخشي از نظر طراحي سياست و ساختار سيستمي خاص ايران مورد بررسي و تحليل قرار بگيرد؛ تحليل سياس تگذار ي اقتصادي براي برو نرفت از ركود با توجه به ساختار سيستمي اقتصاد ايران )خصوصاً نوسان سطح عمومي قيم تها و انتظارات تورمي( نشان داد كه دخالت مالي دولت به صورت فعالانه )اعمال كسري بودجه( ميتواند يك سياست مؤثر باشد. همچنين تأمين مالي كسري با دخالت پولي فعالانه )چاپ پول( دركنار استقراض از مردم )چاپ اوراق قرضه( نتايج بهتري نسبت به عدم مداخله فعالانه پولي دولت به دست مي دهد

1400/06/21

Investigating the Effects of Systemic Behaviors of Government Deficit Finance and Liquidity Creation on the Iranian National Production: a System Dynamics Analysis

1/1/1900 12:00:00 AM

Existence of dynamic complexity in natural, social and economic systems is what renders them policy-resistant. In economic complex systems in particular, bounded rationality on the policymakers’ side leads them to get overwhelmed and notice the existence of these complexities only after delays, which in turn leads to these systems being in a state of constant confusion. On the other hand, in the context of developing nations, we face a wide variety of interlocked loops each characterized by a delay in perception, processing and responding to the policies in the area of production and economic macrosystem as a whole, which stand out in comparison with the economic systems peculiar to the developed countries. In this research an attempt has been made to introduce accounting system dynamics as a special tool for analyzing some aspects of the dynamic complextities in the Iranian economy; And as a demonstration to its usefulness, a simple four sector model of the economy was built and the effects of government deficit finance methods on the national production were analysed from a systems structure and policy design point of view. The results showed that in an underdeveloped economy facing recession, government can indeed exert a positive haul to the economy by running a budget deficit policy from a fiscal point of view; On the other hand, it is shown that coupling debt financing (issuing bonds) with printing money yields best results in our system. The study is concluded with examination in silico of a situation where the economy is encumbered by lack of external rents and inflationary expectations; The same preference of fiscal and monetary expansionary policies with the latter being run through a combination of debt financing and money printing is shown to hold true; most importantly the collapse in productive capacity which would otherwise ensue is avoided when government chooses to combie traditional bond issuing with quantitative easing.

تفكر سيستمي پويايي شناسي سيستم حسابداري ماكروسيستم اقتصادي خلق نقدينگي - - - - چرخه هاي تجاري

System dynamics- systems thinking-accounting system dynamics- economic macrosystem- -business cycles