چكيده به لاتين
The various conditions of territorial regions and their indigenous requirements as well as the lack of coordination of government institutions at the level of remote areas have taken the possibility of effective and centralized planning from central governments, which is why governments around the world have inevitably tended to develop regional plans. In addition, the rapid developments and changes in various areas and the effects of these changes on each other have posed challenges for the development of a single vision for the territory and considered the need for foresight and alternative thought in regional planning. In the foresight literature, the use of foresight perspectives in regional planning is known as “regional foresight”, which was put forward more than two decades ago. The present study tries to propose an indigenous model to apply this approach in Iran. With regard to the special conditions of regional planning in Iran, such as weakness in the legal infrastructure of planning and budgeting at the regional level, the need for normative planning based on religious and national demands and so on, the development of an indigenous foresight model with a regional approach is inevitable. After reviewing the regional foresight literature, this dissertation provided a scientometric analysis and a comparison of the capabilities of different models along with their strengths and weaknesses. Using the meta-synthesis approach, it developed a regional foresight model tailored to local needs. The achievements of the meta-synthesis approach and the proposed model were presented to the planning experts to comment on them and the results were presented. The proposed model, called Iran-specific normative regional foresight, consists of six main components, namely providing the infrastructure, preparation and framing, understanding the current situation by identifying the possible national drivers and futures, depicting the region’s desired horizon and future, formulating measures and strategies, and finally implementation, supervision, and promotion. Then, the conceptual and structural model proportionate to the planning level was extracted from the Islamic-Iranian Model of Progress Center. This was done through semi-structured interviews and meetings of experts with planning, regional and foresight experts at the mentioned center. Along with these two models, a step-by-step guide to creation of a foresight center was presented there. This guide includes how to define the work, form a foresight group, provide the required infrastructure, and draw a map of the subjects of foresight, as well as executive considerations and the steps of establishing a foresight center in this complex. The developed model of regional foresight with a normative approach can improve planning at the national and regional levels. Applying its customized model for the Islamic-Iranian Model of Progress Center can improve the process of completing and improving the “Islamic-Iranian Model of Progress” document.
