چكيده به لاتين
In Iran’s economy, banks have the task of giving usury-free loans according to usury-free banking law. These loans are given in the forms of markup (mobadeleh), profit & loss sharing (mosharekat), and qarzolhasaneh contracts. As the mechanisms of these contracts are different, it is very important to compare the usage impact of mobadeleh and mosharekat contracts. In the current research, the effects of changing the mosharekat portion in the total credit of banks financing is analyzed. For this purpose, a comprehensive model for Iran's macroeconomics was built and simulated for the 2000 to 2050 period by the use of real data. To analyze the effects of changing the mosharekat portion at the macro level, the unemployment rate, growth rate, and inflation rate were selected as the objective variables. After the study of the different policies, it was cleared that the incremental shift of financing contracts will make better results than a one-time shift. Hence, seven policies for shifting to mosharekat credits were considered, including -5, -3, -1, 0, +1, +3, and +5 percent annual growth. The zero-percent annual growth means to maintain the current situation in which only 29.85% of the total fianacing’s credits is dedicated to mosharekat contracts. In other policies, the considered values are added to the base value annually. Furthermore, in mobadeleh contracts, it's essential to determine which portion is given to the firms and increase the production and which portion is given to the households and increase the consumption. Hence, 3 states were supposed for the portion mobadeleh contracts to firms, including 29.11%, 39.11%, and 49.11%. By combining 7 states for the shifting rate of the portion of mosharekat contracts and 3 states for the portion mobadeleh contracts to firms, 21 policies were made. The model’s simulation for these policies in the 50 year period shown that the policies which consider 29.11% for firms ratio in the total credit of mobadeleh contracts make better conditions in all three objective variables. From the perspective of mobadeleh and mosharekat credits, the selection of the best policy is more complex. The policy in which 1% annual increase in the mobadeleh credits will make a better result in the unemployment and growth rate. About the inflation rate, the policy in which 5% annual increase in the mobadeleh credits is the best policy. If all three unemployment, growth, and inflation rates come into consideration, the 1% and 3% annual increase in the mobadeleh credits policies get the common first rank for the best policy.
