چكيده به لاتين
The water level of Urmia Lake has decreased significantly over the past two decades. This problem, in addition to the destructive effects it has left on the plant and animal ecosystems have also had adverse consequences for the inhabitants of the lake and the housing and employment system. The present study has tried to reduce the water level of Urmia Lake on the settlement and activity in a selected area located in West Azerbaijan province, including the cities of Urmia, Naqadeh, Salmas, and Miandoab near Urmia Lake and in a 20-year time horizon and planning on Scenario base to provide a basis for planning in possible conditions for the future of the region. The present research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical and case-study in terms of method and nature. Documentation and field survey methods have been used to collect data and information. The data collection tool in the documentary method is the existing databases and the field survey is a questionnaire. Accordingly, first, the variables affecting the settlement and activity were extracted by reviewing library studies and experiences of similar lakes, and then using the Delphi method and with the help of Wizard scenario software and DPSIR model, compatible scenarios for the future of the region and also their appropriate strategies were explained. In this way, four critical dam uncertainties, unemployment rate, poverty and inequality, and a sense of individual and social security are identified as key variables of the research and three possible scenarios of static status (cessation of dam construction and continuation of the trend in other indicators), critical situation (Stopping the construction of dams and reducing the feeling of personal and social security) and a very critical situation (stopping the construction of dams, increasing the unemployment rate and reducing the feeling of personal and social security) were introduced for the region. According to studies, the decrease in the water level of Urmia Lake has direct effects such as the recession of the region's tourism industry, the decline in agricultural life, reduction of non-agricultural activities, closure of conversion industries, premature poverty, migration, and rural population change, rising costs, and threats to job security. It can have indirect effects and effects such as salinization of groundwater and social damage to the region. Statistics also show that the region has faced a decline in employment in various economic sectors and an increase in unemployment; although various causes can be involved in this area, the lake crisis has undoubtedly been one of the influential factors. However, in terms of population in the region, at least so far and in the study area, there is no significant reduction in population and number of households. Finally, smart soil and water management and strengthening the institutional context as strategies appropriate to the first scenario, resilience of rural communities and focus on vulnerable groups as strategies appropriate to the second scenario, and local economic development and rural development as Strategies appropriate to the third scenario have been proposed.
