چكيده به لاتين
In this dissertation, due to the importance of the nexus issue, a simulation model for the energy subsystem was developed by considering the requirements of the water, energy and food nexus approach for planning and decision. The energy subsystem simulation model is divided into two parts: energy supply and demand side, taking into account parameters, independent variables, as well as nexus variables, and is developed in the framework of online and stand-alone interaction. The energy supply side is related to the production of energy from power plants and the demand side is related to the energy required in water and food subsystems. The performance of the simulated model of the energy subsystem with a stand-alone nexus approach is that by receiving nexus variables from the water subsystem (such as net reservoir head and allocated water amount) and food (such as cultivated area) as a time series of assumed values, the response of the energy subsystem is evaluated. By developing such a model for the energy system with a nexus approach, decision-makers can examine policies related to energy production, water and agricultural production from an energy perspective. Karun catchment was selected for this research in the statistical period of 2008-2018. To evaluate the stand-alone state in the energy subsystem simulator, different scenarios were defined for the nexus variables received from water and food subsystems in both supply and demand, and the response of the energy subsystem in different scenarios with the baseline scenario, which shows the current situation in the 2008-2018 statistical period. The results showed that on the energy supply side, with a 55% increase in water released to Karun 4 hydropower plant and a 33% decrease in water allocated to the Ramin thermal power plant in the mentioned statistical period, the amount of energy produced decreased by 3.5 TWh compared to the baseline scenario. . Also, the average operating coefficient of Karun 4 and Ramin power plants increased by 5.8% and decreased by 3%, respectively. Other results from the defined scenarios on the energy supply side showed that if the full capacity of the Zargan gas thermal power plant is used to generate energy or decommissions, it will not have much effect on the energy subsystem outputs on the supply side. On the energy demand side, by receiving nexus variables from the water and food subsystems, the results of the study showed that onion and potato crops have the highest energy consumption, respectively, but total water consumption (including water used for irrigation of agricultural products and water used for production). Energy consumed in agricultural lands (onion crop is more than potatoes (equal cultivation pattern scenario). The total water consumption of onions and potatoes is 4.03 and 3.58 billion cubic meters, respectively. The results of the research showed that by replacing the low water product (barley) with the high water product (onion), the total water consumption will be reduced by 21% compared to the baseline scenario. Also, by replacing the onion crop with barley, the total water consumption will increase by 106% (scenarios of replacing the low-water crop with high-water and vice versa). It should be noted that due to the existing limitations, to validate the model, a comparison of water intensity in power plants (observational and computational) was used. The validation results showed that, for example, for the Ramin heater power plant, the calculation error is about 10.3%.
