eva‎luation of climate change in increasing and decreasing the water level of the Caspian sea based on Neural Network

9/11/2023 12:00:00 AM

The rapid increase in the water level of the Caspian Sea (+2.5 meters since 1978) has had a great impact on the 5 countries around the Caspian Sea. Because this flow has damaged roads, buildings, ports, beaches and lands under different users. The effect of climate, or better to say, climate change, is the primary reason for these changes. The effect of different climatic factors such as temperature, precipitation, evaporation, carbon dioxide on sea level change for the year (1970-2020) from the available data and modeling of carbon dioxide emission according to the B1MES climate scenario for the years (2020-2100) with MAGICC SCENGEN software (ver 5.3), temperature, precipitation and evaporation were obtained for these years. Using MATLAB software and perceptron artificial neural network, it was done to create a network and estimate the water level of the Caspian Sea for the years (2020-2100). The result is that the temperature of Anzali port, which is the subject of our study, increased by an average of 0.3 degrees Celsius every decade under the effect of carbon dioxide (carbon dioxide change). The temperature will increase by +2.6 degrees Celsius and the precipitation will decrease by 5% (94 mm), while in the Volga river basin, the temperature is expected to increase by 3.60 degrees Celsius and the precipitation will increase by 7% (18 mm) by the year 2100. Finally, the average of the artificial neural network models reached that the water level will increase between 95 and 183 centimeters by the years 2075 and 2100.

تغيير اقليم , تراز سطح آب درياي خزر , شبكه عصبي

Climate change , Caspian Sea Level , Neural Network

Alireza Majidi Khameneh

Dr. Naser Shabakhty