جعفر ساعي نيا

Private money as a competitor to government money was introduced by Hayek for the first time in order to abolish the government's monopoly on currency issuance and provide a decentralized currency. Many studies consider digital currencies as an example of private money. However, in Hayek's theory of private money, private money is not affected by the monetary and financial policies of the government. This matter has been neglected and has not been investigated among the conducted researches. For this purpose, this research aims to analyze the effect of monetary and financial policies on the cryptocurrency market by using Bitcoin and the United States government as an example, considering that this country is the primary origin for cryptocurrencies and the development activities of this country in this field, in the monthly period of 2014:2 to 2022:3 has studied in the form of ARDL model. The estimation results of ARDL(1,0,0,0,2,0,0,0) optimal model show that the variable effect of interest rate, inflation, unemployment rate and budget deficit on Bitcoin price changes is not significant. Therefore, monetary policy does not have a significant and direct effect on the price growth of this cryptocurrency from a statistical point of view. However, this effect can be introduced to the price of this cryptocurrency by other variables that are affected by this policy. For example, the effect of economic growth and its interruptions is significant, and the economic growth of the current period and the previous two periods have a positive effect on the price growth trend of this cryptocurrency. The effect of increasing the tax rate on the price trend of Bitcoin has also been eva‎luated negatively. However, the effect of the growth of the trading volume and the price growth of the previous period of Bitcoin is positive on the growth of the price of the current period. In the long term, the effect of the growth in the volume of Bitcoin transactions on its price growth has been eva‎luated positively. The effect of economic growth is also positive. The effect of the tax rate on the price growth of Bitcoin, however, is negative in line with the short-term period. The effect of other variables on Bitcoin price growth is not significant and therefore cannot be interpreted. Based on this, the effect of financial policies on the price growth of this cryptocurrency is negative and direct, and the effect of monetary policy, if any, is indirect and seeks to affect other variables.

رمزارزها , نظريه پول خصوصي هايك , سياست پولي , سياست مالي

cryptocurrencies , Hayek's theory of private money , Monetary Policy , financial policy

jafar Saeiniya

Dr. Ataollah Rafiei