شيما محسني نژاد

The Earned Value Management (EVM) method is one of the project management techniques that discovers the project’s variances by comparing the work performed and planned. However, the inherent uncertainties and probabilities in the project lead to the input data’s uncertainty of this method. Despite this importance, the data of the above method is considered deterministic in most of the research models, and also several researches have also made this method under fuzzy information. In this research, with the assisstance of library research and using the combined model of fuzzy and gray numbers, called interval gray triangular fuzzy numbers, we have modeled the grey fuzzy earned value management (GF-EVM) with the presence of fuzzy and grey uncertainty. In order to ensure the eva‎luation of the research model, the numerical example in the research of Mr. Handiani et al. is used and the results are compared with the outcomes of earned value management method using Z numbers. The results of this research indicate that by combination of gray probability’s degree with the triangular fuzzy number, the results are closer to the real world and are more permissive, and finally, according to the estimation of the final cost of the project, it convinces the managers to assign lower cost to project phases in comparison with Z-number based earned value management.

مديريت ارزش حاصله , عدم قطعيت , نظريه فازي , نظريه خاكستري , مديريت هزينه و زمانبندي

Earned value management , uncertainty , Fuzzy Theory , grey theory , cost and time management

Shima Mohseninezhad

Dr. Morteza Bagherpoor