چكيده به لاتين
The increasing consumption of energy and numerous obstacles to its extraction, including diminishing fossil resources, a tendency to use renewable energy, environmental and technological changes, the desire for networked information systems, and the increase in energy prices are among the factors that necessitate the need for new technologies. IoE is known as a new and optimal solution that provides the necessary tools for optimal energy management. The present study was conducted with the aim of providing a policy model for the development of IoE in Iran with an emphasis on the sustainable development approach. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-exploratory in terms of research type. In the first step of the research, the indicators and components affecting the development of IoE through two qualitative approaches under the headings of meta-synthesis (the seven-step model of Sandelowski and Barroso, 2006) and thematic analysis (the six-step model of Brown and Clark, 2006) have been identified and categorized using MAXQDA software. The statistical population of the study was the scholarly finding of 2010–2021 and 55 papers were sampled from the published works after the screening process. In order to measure the reliability and control the quality of the present study, the Kappa coefficient was used, and its value after calculation with SPSS software was equal to 0.87, which falls in the “excellent” category. In the second step, the frequency and importance of each indicator and component was determined by the Shannon entropy method. In the third step, the MICMAC structural analysis method was used to evaluate the influence / dependence of indicators and components by fifteen experts in the field of energy and determine strategic drivers. The purpose of this step is to compare the results of two mentioned methods. In the next step, the future scenarios of IoE in Iran were analyzed using the scenario-based strategic planning (SBSP) method based on CIB and GBN approaches, and the development policies of IoE were formulated. Finally, the policies under each scenario were determined by the importance-performance analysis (IPA) method. The results show that 82 indicators play a role in implementation of IoE; these indicators can be divided into ten axial categories of rules and regulations, individual and human factors, financing, technological infrastructure, cultural and social factors, security factors, technological resources, knowledge resources, learning style, and management factors. Among 82, 15 indicators have been selected as the most key indicators and two components of management factors and technological infrastructure as strategic components in implementation and development of IoE in Iran. After confirming the key indicators identified from the previous step by the research experts and entering it into the scenario analysis stage, a total of 49 different possible situations were designed for the future of IoE technology, which includes a range of favorable to unfavorable and critical conditions. The results of scenario analysis with the CIB approach show that in total, there are 4 strong scenarios with a high probability of occurrence, among which one scenario has promising and favorable conditions, and the rest represent an intermediate situation and the continuation of current trend. Also, 7942 weak scenarios were identified by Scenario Wizard software. In the GBN approach, four scenarios were defined for the development of IoE technology in the future of Iran with the titles of Usain Bolt, One-handed Swordsman, Time is money, and Tortoise. The policies of each scenario were determined based on the IPA matrix and presented in the form of a comprehensive model.
