چكيده به لاتين
Renewable energies are recognized today as a suitable alternative to fossil fuels. This study examines the contribution of renewable energies to the energy supply in Sistan and Baluchestan province. Considering the wind and solar potential in the province, 16 scenarios are analyzed to investigate the impact of renewable energies on electricity, heating, cooling, and water desalination. The first scenario represents the current energy supply trend in the province until 2035. However, the remaining scenarios assess the effects of renewable energies. It is estimated that by 2035, the electricity, heating, and cooling demands will be 20.19, 5.2, and 19.7 TWh, respectively. Additionally, under ideal conditions, the estimated water consumption in 2035 will be 211.7 million cubic meters. With a wind and photovoltaic power capacity of 12,320 and 4,730 MW in Sistan and Baluchestan province, these 16 scenarios are analyzed using Energy PLAN software. Simulation of the first scenario indicates that continuing the current trend will result in increased pollution, reaching 8.57 million tons by 2035, representing a 30% increase compared to 2019, and equivalent to 93 million euros in taxes. However, it's considered the worst-case scenario. Simulation of the other scenarios suggests that they cannot be easily prioritized, as each scenario may be the best or worst depending on specific objectives. Therefore, using a multi-criteria decision-making model with the VIKOR method, scenarios are ranked from the best to worst. The results show that the sixth scenario is the best scenario in terms of technical, economic, and environmental objectives, with the ninth and third scenarios considered as next priorities. The third scenario proposes a power supply system using fossil and wind power, and for heating supply, it utilizes solar collectors as renewable fuel. It is suggested that by 2035, 50% of heating load be provided by solar heating, and the rest from the gas distribution network. Furthermore, 50% of cooling load is provided by absorption chillers and the rest by electricity. However, the annual cost of this scenario is 143.9 million euros. The strength of this scenario lies in the surplus electricity generation of 17.55 TWh. Sensitivity analysis shows that the wind turbine capacity and carbon dioxide tax have a significant impact on the economic and environmental analyses of the proposed system in the sixth scenario. With an increase in the carbon dioxide tax, the system's variable cost increases by 52%, and with an increase in the wind turbine capacity, carbon dioxide emissions and the total cost of the system decrease by 32% and increase by 48%, respectively.
