Identifying and eva‎luating Iran Petroleum Contracts (IPC) Risk with the COSO framework approach and consequence of risks on the fiscal regime

1/1/1900 12:00:00 AM

After the nationalization of the oil industry in 1329, Iran's economy has always been significantly dependent on the income of oil and gas derivatives. For this reason, the optimal implementation of oil projects has been very important from the past to the present. One of the important topics in the correct implementation of these projects is the precise definition of contracts, because such projects are due to their high-risk nature, and the main risks are financial and legal risks. In this research, the risks of Iran's new oil contracts have been identified and eva‎luated with the Kozo model approach and the impact of risks on the financial regime of the contract has been analyzed. In terms of the purpose of this research, because the purpose of the research is to identify and eva‎luate the risks of oil contracts and analyze the consequences of risks on the financial regime of oil contracts based on the Kozo model, and the possibility of using the results of this research in the management of upstream oil and gas projects, risk management It is an upstream contract in the oil and gas industry, it is completely practical. The steps of the research are as follows: in the first stage, in order to identify contractual risks, in addition to studying the theoretical foundations, using interviews with 15 experts and experts in the upstream field of the oil and gas industry, the risks of the contracts were identified, then in order to prioritize the risks, a questionnaire in Experts were given the authority to determine the importance of risks based on a 5-point Likert scale. Next, by modeling the cash flow of the South Azadegan oil field project as a case study, the impact of risks on the financial regime was investigated. The results of this research show that most of the risks of the previous generation contracts or cross-selling have been covered in the new contracts, but on the other hand, by examining the financial structure of these types of contracts; It is concluded that the financial structure of this contract is still not favorable enough and does not bring the necessary attraction for domestic and foreign investors. From the perspective of COSO model, major contract risks are divided into operational and legal areas. Another result of this research is the analysis of important risks on the financial regime of new oil contracts. In this research, the impact of the risks of oil price fluctuations, the 50% limitation of the repayment ceiling from the field revenues, the increase in investment costs, the cost of money, and the decrease in the wage rate on the economic indicators of the plan were investigated and it was determined that the risks of the decrease in the wage rate, the decrease in the cost rate Money and increase in investment costs are respectively the most influential contractual risks on the financial regime of the contract. ​

مديريت ريسك , قراردادهاي نفتي ايران , رژيم مالي , مدل كوزو

Risk Management , COSO Framework , Fiscal Regime , IPC

Fazel Roshanali

Siamak Noori