محمدعلي رسولي

Accurate estimation of methane production in landfills is crucial for effective management of greenhouse gases and energy recovery. The inherent variability in waste composition and landfill site conditions necessitates site-specific assessments to enhance the reliability of methane estimates. This study investigates the uncertainties associated with methane production predictions using a combination of stoichiometric methods, biochemical methane potential (BMP) tests, and Bayesian inference. The research focuses on the Saravan landfill in Gilan Province, Iran, and analyzes both fresh and aged (1-year and 5-year) municipal solid waste (MSW) samples to assess methane production potential and degradation rates. The findings indicate that the average methane production potential (L0) was 83.4 cubic meters of methane per ton of MSW for fresh samples, while it decreased to 44.77 and 32.82 cubic meters for 1-year and 5-year-old waste samples, respectively. BMP tests, conducted using landfill leachate as an inoculum, confirmed the decreasing trend of L0 with increasing waste age, with an average value of 79.18 cubic meters of methane per ton of MSW. This study also highlights the challenges in establishing a direct relationship between k and L0 based on BMP results. The integration of sensitivity analysis and Bayesian inference enabled the quantification of uncertainty and identification of the most influential parameters in methane estimation. The degradation rate constant (k) was determined to be 0.264 year-1, which is consistent with guidelines for humid regions. Uncertainty analysis revealed that the highest standard deviation in methane estimation reached 1.38 and 2.26 million cubic meters of methane per ton of MSW using the BMP method and the simplified method, respectively, emphasizing the need for site-specific data and more accurate estimation methods. Finally, the potential for electricity generation was eva‎luated, and based on the recent one-year monthly input data of the current cell, 1,482 megawatt-hours was obtained. This amount has the capacity to supply the consumption of 3,700 households. Overall, with a daily input of 700 tons of waste, the potential for generating approximately 14 megawatts per hour exists. The insights gained from this study contribute to improving landfill gas management strategies and facilitating informed decision-making for sustainable waste management practices.

پتانسيل بيوشيميايي توليد متان (BMP) , عدم قطعيت , متان , محل دفن زباله , زباله جامد شهري

Biochemical Methane Potential (BMP) , Uncertainty , Methane , Landfill , Municipal Solid Waste

Mohammad Ali Rasouli

Mehran Karimpour-fard, Habib Shahnazari