چكيده به لاتين
The space industry is known as an economic driver for many world economies. In Iran, the acquisition of satellite technology knowledge is one of the achievements of the country's scientific and technological indicators in recent years, but the position and importance of optimal investment in this industry in Iran have been ignored. The roadmap and optimal technology portfolio is one of the tools that can cover this gap and lead to better decision-making by policymakers. In this research, the drawn technology roadmap tries to identify priority needs and respond to them based on the selected format. The technology roadmap is a diagram, consisting of a matrix structure with 3 layers of market (need), product, service or system and technology, science or resource. The last layer (technology, science and resource) is based on two short-term (up to 2 next year) and mid-term (next 2 to 5 years) time frames. After drawing the technology roadmap, the optimum technology portfolio determination regarding its goals, attributes and challenges is addressed for Iran's space industry with a hybrid quantitative-qualitative method in two short and medium-term periods. We formulate a technology portfolio selection model with these multi-objective functions: maximization of benefits in using different technologies comprising of both short and medium-term portfolios, maximizing the total summation of all Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) of technologies, maximizing the acquisition speed for the technologies, and minimizing the acquisition risk of technologies in each portfolio. In the proposed model, the usability, acquisition cost, and complexity of each technology are considered meticulously. Also, the goal programming method is used to integrate the objective functions. Another novelty of this paper is the formulation of two portfolios with two different periods in which their corresponding inputs and outputs affect the other. This research can significantly help in directing the country’s investment in the space industry, spatial ecosystem orientation, facilitating the creation of space-based businesses, improving economic growth, and also providing guidelines to improve the related policies in this area. In addition, this research can be an inspiration for other developing countries in the space industry.
The acquisition of satellite technology knowledge is one of the key scientific and technological achievements of the country in recent years, but the importance of optimal investment in this industry has been neglected in Iran. The roadmap and optimal technology portfolio are tools that can cover this gap and lead to better decision making by policy makers. In this research, the drawn technology roadmap tries to identify priority needs and respond to them based on the selected format. The technology roadmap is a diagram, consisting of a matrix structure with 3 layers of market (need), product, service or system and technology, science or resource. The last layer (technology, science and resource) is based on two short-term (up to 2 next year) and mid-term (next 2 to 5 years) time frames. After drawing the technology roadmap, the technology portfolio of the country's space industry has been formulated, based on the technology roadmap, with a quantitative-qualitative (mixed) method. In this research, a technology portfolio selection model has been modeled with these objective functions: maximizing the benefits of using different technologies in both the short and medium term, maximizing the diversity of technological readiness levels (TRLs), maximizing the speed of acquiring technologies and minimizing the riskiness of acquiring technologies in each portfolio. In the proposed model, usability, acquisition cost and complexity of each technology are also considered. Also, the goal programming method has been used to integrate the objective functions. Another innovative aspect of this research is the formulation of two portfolios with two different time periods where their corresponding inputs and outputs affect each other. The output of the mentioned two portfolios is: the radars and atomic clocks technology groups in the short-term portfolio and the Terrain mapping and classification, optical sensors, In-situ camera geometric calibration diagnostics and self-calibration and Human-rated advanced secondary chemistries beyond lithium-ion technology groups in the medium-term portfolio. This thesis can contribute to the direction of the country's investment in the space industry, the direction of the space ecosystem, facilitating the creation of space businesses and also providing guidelines for improving related policies in this area.
