31416

تدوين نقشه راه فناوري صنعت ماهواره و طراحي سبد فناوري مبتني بر آن

دكتري

مديريت تكنولوژي

1396

10/6/1403

دكتر سيد حسن صديقي- دكتر عادل آذر

دكتر ميرسامان پيشوايي

مديريت، اقتصاد و مهندسي پيشرفت

كسب دانش فناوري ماهواره يكي از دستاوردهاي شاخص علمي و فناوري كشور در سال‌هاي اخير است، اما جايگاه و اهميت سرمايه‌گذاري بهينه در اين صنعت در ايران ناديده گرفته شده است. نقشه‌ راه و سبد بهينه فناوري ابزارهايي هستند كه مي‌توانند اين شكاف را پوشش داده و منجر به تصميم‌گيري بهتر سياست‌گذاران شوند. در اين پژوهش، نقشه راه فناوري ترسيم‌شده، سعي در شناسايي نيازهاي اولويت‌دار و پاسخگويي به آن مبتني بر قالب منتخب دارد. نقشه راه فناوري ترسيمي، متشكل از يك ساختار ماتريسي با 3 لايه بازار (نياز)، محصول، خدمات يا سيستم، فناوري، علم و منابع مي‌باشد كه لايه آخر (فناوري، علم و منابع)، مبتني بر دو بازه زماني كوتاه‌مدت (تا 2 سال آينده) و ميان‌مدت (2 تا 5 سال آينده)، جايگذاري شده است. پس از ترسيم نقشه راه فناوري، به تشكيل سبد فناوري صنعت فضايي كشور، مبتني بر نقشه راه فناوري ، با روش كمي-كيفي (آميخته) پرداخته شده است. در اين پژوهش، يك مدل انتخاب سبد فناوري، با اين توابع هدف مدل شده است: به حداكثر رساندن منافع حاصله از استفاده از فناوري‌هاي مختلف در دو بازه زماني كوتاه و ميان‌مدت، به حداكثر رساندن تنوع سطوح بلوغ فناورانه ، به حداكثر رساندن سرعت اكتساب فناوري‌ها و به حداقل رساندن خطرپذيري كسب فناوري‌ها در هر سبد. در مدل پيشنهادي، قابليت استفاده، هزينه اكتساب و پيچيدگي هر فناوري نيز در نظر گرفته شده است. همچنين براي ادغام توابع هدف از روش برنامه‌ريزي آرماني استفاده شده است. از ديگر موارد نوآورانه اين پژوهش، مدل كردن دو سبد با دو دوره زماني متفاوت است كه ورودي‌ها و خروجي‌هاي متناظر آن‌ها بر يكديگر تأثير مي‌گذارد. خروجي دو سبد مذكور، عبارت است از: گروه فناوري‌هاي رادارها و كلاك‌هاي اتمي در سبد كوتاه‌مدت و گروه فناوري‌هاي نقشه‌برداري و طبقه‌بندي زمين، سنسورهاي اپتيكي، دوربين‌هاي تشخيص كاليبراسيون هندسي و خود كاليبراسيون و ... در سبد ميان‌مدت. اين پايان‌نامه مي‌تواند در جهت‌دهي سرمايه‌گذاري كشور در صنعت فضايي، جهت‌گيري زيست‌بوم فضايي، تسهيل در ايجاد كسب و‌كارهاي فضايي و همچنين ارائه دستورالعمل‌هايي براي بهبود سياست‌هاي مرتبط در اين حوزه موثر باشد.

1403/08/09

Technology roadmap development for the satellite industry and technology portfolio design based on

8/31/2025 12:00:00 AM

The space industry is known as an economic driver for many world economies. In Iran, the acquisition of satellite technology knowledge is one of the achievements of the country's scientific and technological indicators in recent years, but the position and importance of optimal investment in this industry in Iran have been ignored. The roadmap and optimal technology portfolio is one of the tools that can cover this gap and lead to better decision-making by policymakers. In this research, the drawn technology roadmap tries to identify priority needs and respond to them based on the selected format. The technology roadmap is a diagram, consisting of a matrix structure with 3 layers of market (need), product, service or system and technology, science or resource. The last layer (technology, science and resource) is based on two short-term (up to 2 next year) and mid-term (next 2 to 5 years) time frames. After drawing the technology roadmap, the optimum technology portfolio determination regarding its goals, attributes and challenges is addressed for Iran's space industry with a hybrid quantitative-qualitative method in two short and medium-term periods. We formulate a technology portfolio selection model with these multi-objective functions: maximization of benefits in using different technologies comprising of both short and medium-term portfolios, maximizing the total summation of all Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) of technologies, maximizing the acquisition speed for the technologies, and minimizing the acquisition risk of technologies in each portfolio. In the proposed model, the usability, acquisition cost, and complexity of each technology are considered meticulously. Also, the goal programming method is used to integrate the objective functions. Another novelty of this paper is the formulation of two portfolios with two different periods in which their corresponding inputs and outputs affect the other. This research can significantly help in directing the country’s investment in the space industry, spatial ecosystem orientation, facilitating the creation of space-based businesses, improving economic growth, and also providing guidelines to improve the related policies in this area. In addition, this research can be an inspiration for other developing countries in the space industry. The acquisition of satellite technology knowledge is one of the key scientific and technological achievements of the country in recent years, but the importance of optimal investment in this industry has been neglected in Iran. The roadmap and optimal technology portfolio are tools that can cover this gap and lead to better decision making by policy makers. In this research, the drawn technology roadmap tries to identify priority needs and respond to them based on the selected format. The technology roadmap is a diagram, consisting of a matrix structure with 3 layers of market (need), product, service or system and technology, science or resource. The last layer (technology, science and resource) is based on two short-term (up to 2 next year) and mid-term (next 2 to 5 years) time frames. After drawing the technology roadmap, the technology portfolio of the country's space industry has been formulated, based on the technology roadmap, with a quantitative-qualitative (mixed) method. In this research, a technology portfolio selection model has been modeled with these objective functions: maximizing the benefits of using different technologies in both the short and medium term, maximizing the diversity of technological readiness levels (TRLs), maximizing the speed of acquiring technologies and minimizing the riskiness of acquiring technologies in each portfolio. In the proposed model, usability, acquisition cost and complexity of each technology are also considered. Also, the goal programming method has been used to integrate the objective functions. Another innovative aspect of this research is the formulation of two portfolios with two different time periods where their corresponding inputs and outputs affect each other. The output of the mentioned two portfolios is: the radars and atomic clocks technology groups in the short-term portfolio and the Terrain mapping and classification, optical sensors, In-situ camera geometric calibration diagnostics and self-calibration and Human-rated advanced secondary chemistries beyond lithium-ion technology groups in the medium-term portfolio. This thesis can contribute to the direction of the country's investment in the space industry, the direction of the space ecosystem, facilitating the creation of space businesses and also providing guidelines for improving related policies in this area.

نقشه راه فناوري، رهنگاشت فناوري، سبد فناوري، صنعت ماهواره، صنعت فضايي

Technology roadmap, Technology portfolio, Satellite industry, Space industry

Emad Chizari

Dr. Seyed Hasan Sedighy , Dr. Adel Azar